Weight Loss and Mortality Among Free-Living Frail Elders: A Prospective Study

Background. Numerous studies of the elderly population have indicated that body weight and weight changes are related to mortality, but the one group at particularly high risk of nutritional inadequacies—frail elders receiving home help services—has not been studied. Methods. A prospective cohort of 288 frail elders (81 men; 207 women; mean age: 78.2 ± 7.6 yrs) receiving home support services was followed for 3–5 years. Nutritional variables included baseline body mass index (BMI), weight loss prior to baseline, and energy and protein intake. Covariates included age, gender, smoking, and health and functional status. Cox's multivariate survival analysis was used to identify independent predictors of mortality. Results. There were 102 deaths (35.4%) over the follow-up period. Univariate predictors included age, sex, BMI, weight loss, and functional status. In multivariate analysis, weight loss at baseline was a significant predictor of mortality, RR = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.15–2.71), as was male gender, RR = 2.71 (95% CI: 1.73–4.24), and age at baseline, RR = 1.40 (95% CI: 1.06–1.86). Conclusion. Among free-living frail elders, weight loss is a predictor of early mortality after controlling for smoking, and functional and health status indicators. From our observations, however, we cannot conclude that prevention of weight loss would lead to increased survival. This needs to be explored in an intervention study.