Evaluation of O-POSSUM in predicting in-hospital mortality after resection for oesophageal cancer

Background: The aims of the present study were to validate the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality adjusted for oesophagogastric surgery (O‐POSSUM). Methods: Data on patients who underwent potentially curative oesophagectomy in a tertiary referral centre for a...

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Veröffentlicht in:British journal of surgery 2007-12, Vol.94 (12), p.1521-1526
Hauptverfasser: Lagarde, S. M., Maris, A. K. D., de Castro, S. M. M., Busch, O. R. C., Obertop, H., van Lanschot, J. J. B.
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container_end_page 1526
container_issue 12
container_start_page 1521
container_title British journal of surgery
container_volume 94
creator Lagarde, S. M.
Maris, A. K. D.
de Castro, S. M. M.
Busch, O. R. C.
Obertop, H.
van Lanschot, J. J. B.
description Background: The aims of the present study were to validate the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality adjusted for oesophagogastric surgery (O‐POSSUM). Methods: Data on patients who underwent potentially curative oesophagectomy in a tertiary referral centre for adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus were analysed. The in‐hospital mortality predicted by O‐POSSUM was compared with the actual value by linear analysis. Results: Twenty‐four (3·6 per cent) of 663 patients died in hospital. The observed : predicted ratio for in‐hospital mortality was 0·29. The model had a poor fit (P < 0·001). The area under the receiver–operator characteristic curve was 0·60 (95 per cent confidence interval 0·47 to 0·72); P = 0·113). O‐POSSUM score was not related to the severity of complications. Conclusion: O‐POSSUM overpredicted in‐hospital mortality threefold and could not identify patients at higher risk of death. O‐POSSUM needs substantial modification before it can be used for comparison of treatment outcomes between centres. Copyright © 2007 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. No value for comparative audits
doi_str_mv 10.1002/bjs.5850
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M. ; Maris, A. K. D. ; de Castro, S. M. M. ; Busch, O. R. C. ; Obertop, H. ; van Lanschot, J. J. B.</creator><creatorcontrib>Lagarde, S. M. ; Maris, A. K. D. ; de Castro, S. M. M. ; Busch, O. R. C. ; Obertop, H. ; van Lanschot, J. J. B.</creatorcontrib><description>Background: The aims of the present study were to validate the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality adjusted for oesophagogastric surgery (O‐POSSUM). Methods: Data on patients who underwent potentially curative oesophagectomy in a tertiary referral centre for adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus were analysed. The in‐hospital mortality predicted by O‐POSSUM was compared with the actual value by linear analysis. Results: Twenty‐four (3·6 per cent) of 663 patients died in hospital. The observed : predicted ratio for in‐hospital mortality was 0·29. The model had a poor fit (P &lt; 0·001). The area under the receiver–operator characteristic curve was 0·60 (95 per cent confidence interval 0·47 to 0·72); P = 0·113). O‐POSSUM score was not related to the severity of complications. Conclusion: O‐POSSUM overpredicted in‐hospital mortality threefold and could not identify patients at higher risk of death. O‐POSSUM needs substantial modification before it can be used for comparison of treatment outcomes between centres. Copyright © 2007 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd. 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Results: Twenty‐four (3·6 per cent) of 663 patients died in hospital. The observed : predicted ratio for in‐hospital mortality was 0·29. The model had a poor fit (P &lt; 0·001). The area under the receiver–operator characteristic curve was 0·60 (95 per cent confidence interval 0·47 to 0·72); P = 0·113). O‐POSSUM score was not related to the severity of complications. Conclusion: O‐POSSUM overpredicted in‐hospital mortality threefold and could not identify patients at higher risk of death. O‐POSSUM needs substantial modification before it can be used for comparison of treatment outcomes between centres. Copyright © 2007 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd. 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source MEDLINE; Access via Wiley Online Library; Oxford University Press Journals All Titles (1996-Current)
subjects Adenocarcinoma - mortality
Adenocarcinoma - surgery
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biological and medical sciences
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell - mortality
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell - surgery
Esophageal Neoplasms - mortality
Esophageal Neoplasms - surgery
Esophagectomy - mortality
Female
General aspects
Hospital Mortality
Humans
Male
Medical sciences
Middle Aged
Miscellaneous
Predictive Value of Tests
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Severity of Illness Index
title Evaluation of O-POSSUM in predicting in-hospital mortality after resection for oesophageal cancer
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