Good generalizability of a prediction rule for prediction of persistent shoulder pain in the short term
Abstract Objective To evaluate the generalizability of recently developed clinical prediction rules for the prognosis of shoulder pain in general practice. Study Design and Setting A large research program, consisting of a prognostic cohort study and three randomized controlled trials with 6 months...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of clinical epidemiology 2007-09, Vol.60 (9), p.947-953 |
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| creator | Kuijpers, Ton van der Heijden, Geert J.M.G Vergouwe, Yvonne Twisk, Jos W.R Boeke, A. Joan P Bouter, Lex M van der Windt, Daniëlle A.W.M |
| description | Abstract Objective To evaluate the generalizability of recently developed clinical prediction rules for the prognosis of shoulder pain in general practice. Study Design and Setting A large research program, consisting of a prognostic cohort study and three randomized controlled trials with 6 months follow-up, was carried out in The Netherlands. The clinical prediction rules were derived from the results of the prognostic cohort study ( n = 587). The main outcome measure was persistent symptoms at 6 weeks or 6 months. The control groups of the trials who received usual care were merged ( n = 212), and used to validate the prediction rules by studying calibration and discrimination. Results The prediction rule for short-term outcome showed reasonable calibration and discriminative ability in this validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.72 compared to 0.74 in the derivation cohort. The prediction rule for long-term outcome performed less well. Discriminative ability (AUC) decreased to 0.56 in the validation cohort compared to 0.67 in the derivation cohort. Conclusion The prediction rule for the short-term (6 weeks) prognosis showed good generalizability. The prediction rule for the long-term prognosis showed poor generalizability. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.11.015 |
| format | Article |
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Joan P ; Bouter, Lex M ; van der Windt, Daniëlle A.W.M</creator><creatorcontrib>Kuijpers, Ton ; van der Heijden, Geert J.M.G ; Vergouwe, Yvonne ; Twisk, Jos W.R ; Boeke, A. Joan P ; Bouter, Lex M ; van der Windt, Daniëlle A.W.M</creatorcontrib><description>Abstract Objective To evaluate the generalizability of recently developed clinical prediction rules for the prognosis of shoulder pain in general practice. Study Design and Setting A large research program, consisting of a prognostic cohort study and three randomized controlled trials with 6 months follow-up, was carried out in The Netherlands. The clinical prediction rules were derived from the results of the prognostic cohort study ( n = 587). The main outcome measure was persistent symptoms at 6 weeks or 6 months. The control groups of the trials who received usual care were merged ( n = 212), and used to validate the prediction rules by studying calibration and discrimination. Results The prediction rule for short-term outcome showed reasonable calibration and discriminative ability in this validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.72 compared to 0.74 in the derivation cohort. The prediction rule for long-term outcome performed less well. Discriminative ability (AUC) decreased to 0.56 in the validation cohort compared to 0.67 in the derivation cohort. Conclusion The prediction rule for the short-term (6 weeks) prognosis showed good generalizability. The prediction rule for the long-term prognosis showed poor generalizability.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0895-4356</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1878-5921</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.11.015</identifier><identifier>PMID: 17689811</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York, NY: Elsevier Inc</publisher><subject>Acute Disease ; Adult ; Area Under Curve ; Biological and medical sciences ; Calibration ; Cohort Studies ; Confidence intervals ; Diseases of the osteoarticular system ; Epidemiology ; Family practice ; Female ; General aspects ; Humans ; Internal Medicine ; Male ; Manipulative therapy ; Medical sciences ; Methodology ; Middle Aged ; Miscellaneous. Osteoarticular involvement in other diseases ; Musculoskeletal diseases ; Pain ; Pain management ; Prognosis ; Public health. Hygiene ; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine ; Recurrence ; Regression analysis ; Risk Assessment - methods ; Shoulder ; Shoulder Pain - psychology ; Validation studies</subject><ispartof>Journal of clinical epidemiology, 2007-09, Vol.60 (9), p.947-953</ispartof><rights>Elsevier Inc.</rights><rights>2007 Elsevier Inc.</rights><rights>2007 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c527t-1352fe635258360c0775acc8c6f89131b67bb365f44c607fcb9dcc52b892233c3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c527t-1352fe635258360c0775acc8c6f89131b67bb365f44c607fcb9dcc52b892233c3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/1033189331?pq-origsite=primo$$EHTML$$P50$$Gproquest$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,3550,27924,27925,45995,64385,64387,64389,72469</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=19009898$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17689811$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Kuijpers, Ton</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Heijden, Geert J.M.G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vergouwe, Yvonne</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Twisk, Jos W.R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boeke, A. Joan P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bouter, Lex M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Windt, Daniëlle A.W.M</creatorcontrib><title>Good generalizability of a prediction rule for prediction of persistent shoulder pain in the short term</title><title>Journal of clinical epidemiology</title><addtitle>J Clin Epidemiol</addtitle><description>Abstract Objective To evaluate the generalizability of recently developed clinical prediction rules for the prognosis of shoulder pain in general practice. Study Design and Setting A large research program, consisting of a prognostic cohort study and three randomized controlled trials with 6 months follow-up, was carried out in The Netherlands. The clinical prediction rules were derived from the results of the prognostic cohort study ( n = 587). The main outcome measure was persistent symptoms at 6 weeks or 6 months. The control groups of the trials who received usual care were merged ( n = 212), and used to validate the prediction rules by studying calibration and discrimination. Results The prediction rule for short-term outcome showed reasonable calibration and discriminative ability in this validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.72 compared to 0.74 in the derivation cohort. The prediction rule for long-term outcome performed less well. Discriminative ability (AUC) decreased to 0.56 in the validation cohort compared to 0.67 in the derivation cohort. Conclusion The prediction rule for the short-term (6 weeks) prognosis showed good generalizability. The prediction rule for the long-term prognosis showed poor generalizability.</description><subject>Acute Disease</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Area Under Curve</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Calibration</subject><subject>Cohort Studies</subject><subject>Confidence intervals</subject><subject>Diseases of the osteoarticular system</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Family practice</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>General aspects</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Internal Medicine</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Manipulative therapy</subject><subject>Medical sciences</subject><subject>Methodology</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Miscellaneous. Osteoarticular involvement in other diseases</subject><subject>Musculoskeletal diseases</subject><subject>Pain</subject><subject>Pain management</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>Public health. Hygiene</subject><subject>Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine</subject><subject>Recurrence</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Risk Assessment - methods</subject><subject>Shoulder</subject><subject>Shoulder Pain - psychology</subject><subject>Validation studies</subject><issn>0895-4356</issn><issn>1878-5921</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2007</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNqF0l2L1DAUBuAgijuu_oWlIHrXmtM0XzeiLLoKC16o1yFNT3dTO01NWmH89abMyMjeCCWF8JyTjzeEXAGtgIJ4M1SDG_2Es69qSkUFUFHgj8gOlFQl1zU8JjuqNC8bxsUFeZbSQClIKvlTcgFSKK0AduTuJoSuuMMJox39b9v60S-HIvSFLeaInXeLD1MR1xGLPsR_57KZMSafFpyWIt2HdewwC-unIn_LPW6TcSkWjPvn5Elvx4QvTv9L8v3jh2_Xn8rbLzefr9_flo7XcimB8bpHkUeumKCOSsmtc8qJXmlg0ArZtkzwvmmcoLJ3re5cLm2VrmvGHLskr4995xh-rpgWs_fJ4TjaCcOajFDQ6EazDF8-gENY45T3ZoAyBiobyEoclYshpYi9maPf23jIyGxBmMH8DcJsQRgAk4PIhVen9mu7x-5cdrr5DF6dgE3Ojn20k_Pp7DSlOsvs3h0d5lv75TGa5DxOLscQ0S2mC_7_e3n7oMWmfF71Bx4wnc9tUm2o-bo9m-3VUEFpoyVnfwDL0773</recordid><startdate>20070901</startdate><enddate>20070901</enddate><creator>Kuijpers, Ton</creator><creator>van der Heijden, Geert J.M.G</creator><creator>Vergouwe, Yvonne</creator><creator>Twisk, Jos W.R</creator><creator>Boeke, A. 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Joan P ; Bouter, Lex M ; van der Windt, Daniëlle A.W.M</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c527t-1352fe635258360c0775acc8c6f89131b67bb365f44c607fcb9dcc52b892233c3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2007</creationdate><topic>Acute Disease</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Area Under Curve</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Calibration</topic><topic>Cohort Studies</topic><topic>Confidence intervals</topic><topic>Diseases of the osteoarticular system</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Family practice</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>General aspects</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Internal Medicine</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Manipulative therapy</topic><topic>Medical sciences</topic><topic>Methodology</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Miscellaneous. Osteoarticular involvement in other diseases</topic><topic>Musculoskeletal diseases</topic><topic>Pain</topic><topic>Pain management</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>Public health. Hygiene</topic><topic>Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine</topic><topic>Recurrence</topic><topic>Regression analysis</topic><topic>Risk Assessment - methods</topic><topic>Shoulder</topic><topic>Shoulder Pain - psychology</topic><topic>Validation studies</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Kuijpers, Ton</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Heijden, Geert J.M.G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vergouwe, Yvonne</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Twisk, Jos W.R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boeke, A. Joan P</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bouter, Lex M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Windt, Daniëlle A.W.M</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B)</collection><collection>Calcium & Calcified Tissue Abstracts</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database</collection><collection>Health and Safety Science Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A)</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><collection>Toxicology Abstracts</collection><collection>Virology and AIDS Abstracts</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database (Alumni)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C)</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Journal of clinical epidemiology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Kuijpers, Ton</au><au>van der Heijden, Geert J.M.G</au><au>Vergouwe, Yvonne</au><au>Twisk, Jos W.R</au><au>Boeke, A. Joan P</au><au>Bouter, Lex M</au><au>van der Windt, Daniëlle A.W.M</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Good generalizability of a prediction rule for prediction of persistent shoulder pain in the short term</atitle><jtitle>Journal of clinical epidemiology</jtitle><addtitle>J Clin Epidemiol</addtitle><date>2007-09-01</date><risdate>2007</risdate><volume>60</volume><issue>9</issue><spage>947</spage><epage>953</epage><pages>947-953</pages><issn>0895-4356</issn><eissn>1878-5921</eissn><abstract>Abstract Objective To evaluate the generalizability of recently developed clinical prediction rules for the prognosis of shoulder pain in general practice. Study Design and Setting A large research program, consisting of a prognostic cohort study and three randomized controlled trials with 6 months follow-up, was carried out in The Netherlands. The clinical prediction rules were derived from the results of the prognostic cohort study ( n = 587). The main outcome measure was persistent symptoms at 6 weeks or 6 months. The control groups of the trials who received usual care were merged ( n = 212), and used to validate the prediction rules by studying calibration and discrimination. Results The prediction rule for short-term outcome showed reasonable calibration and discriminative ability in this validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.72 compared to 0.74 in the derivation cohort. The prediction rule for long-term outcome performed less well. Discriminative ability (AUC) decreased to 0.56 in the validation cohort compared to 0.67 in the derivation cohort. Conclusion The prediction rule for the short-term (6 weeks) prognosis showed good generalizability. The prediction rule for the long-term prognosis showed poor generalizability.</abstract><cop>New York, NY</cop><pub>Elsevier Inc</pub><pmid>17689811</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.11.015</doi><tpages>7</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Acute Disease Adult Area Under Curve Biological and medical sciences Calibration Cohort Studies Confidence intervals Diseases of the osteoarticular system Epidemiology Family practice Female General aspects Humans Internal Medicine Male Manipulative therapy Medical sciences Methodology Middle Aged Miscellaneous. Osteoarticular involvement in other diseases Musculoskeletal diseases Pain Pain management Prognosis Public health. Hygiene Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine Recurrence Regression analysis Risk Assessment - methods Shoulder Shoulder Pain - psychology Validation studies |
| title | Good generalizability of a prediction rule for prediction of persistent shoulder pain in the short term |
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