Accumulation of risk markers predicts the incidence of sudden death in patients with chronic heart failure

Abstract Background: Sudden death is common in chronic heart failure (CHF). Risk stratification is the first step for primary prevention. Aim: To evaluate the use of risk markers for estimating sudden death risk. Methods and results: We prospectively examined 680 stable patients with CHF. Risk marke...

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Veröffentlicht in:European journal of heart failure 2006-05, Vol.8 (3), p.237-242
Hauptverfasser: Watanabe, Jun, Shinozaki, Tsuyoshi, Shiba, Nobuyuki, Fukahori, Kohei, Koseki, Yoshito, Karibe, Akihiko, Sakuma, Masahito, Miura, Masahito, Kagaya, Yutaka, Shirato, Kunio
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container_end_page 242
container_issue 3
container_start_page 237
container_title European journal of heart failure
container_volume 8
creator Watanabe, Jun
Shinozaki, Tsuyoshi
Shiba, Nobuyuki
Fukahori, Kohei
Koseki, Yoshito
Karibe, Akihiko
Sakuma, Masahito
Miura, Masahito
Kagaya, Yutaka
Shirato, Kunio
description Abstract Background: Sudden death is common in chronic heart failure (CHF). Risk stratification is the first step for primary prevention. Aim: To evaluate the use of risk markers for estimating sudden death risk. Methods and results: We prospectively examined 680 stable patients with CHF. Risk markers were evaluated using the Cox's proportional hazard model in a stepwise manner. Ejection fraction 60 mm, brain natriuretic peptide >200 pg/ml, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and diabetes were significantly associated with increased risk of sudden death. When the number of risk markers were included as co-variables, only "number of risk markers ≥3" entered the model (hazard ratio 8.95, 95% confidence interval 4.57-17.52), while the effects of individual markers did not enter the model. The annual mortality from sudden death was 11% in patients with 3 or more risk markers and 1.4% in patients with 2 or less. Conclusions: Rather than particular risk markers, the number of accumulated risk markers was a more powerful predictor for sudden death in patients with CHF. The number of risk markers could be useful for risk stratification of sudden death.
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.ejheart.2005.08.003
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Risk stratification is the first step for primary prevention. Aim: To evaluate the use of risk markers for estimating sudden death risk. Methods and results: We prospectively examined 680 stable patients with CHF. Risk markers were evaluated using the Cox's proportional hazard model in a stepwise manner. Ejection fraction &lt;30%, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter &gt;60 mm, brain natriuretic peptide &gt;200 pg/ml, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and diabetes were significantly associated with increased risk of sudden death. When the number of risk markers were included as co-variables, only "number of risk markers ≥3" entered the model (hazard ratio 8.95, 95% confidence interval 4.57-17.52), while the effects of individual markers did not enter the model. The annual mortality from sudden death was 11% in patients with 3 or more risk markers and 1.4% in patients with 2 or less. Conclusions: Rather than particular risk markers, the number of accumulated risk markers was a more powerful predictor for sudden death in patients with CHF. The number of risk markers could be useful for risk stratification of sudden death.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1388-9842</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1879-0844</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.ejheart.2005.08.003</identifier><identifier>PMID: 16185924</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Adult ; Aged ; brain natriuretic peptide ; Death, Sudden - etiology ; Diastole ; ejection fraction ; Female ; heart failure ; Heart Failure - complications ; Heart Failure - physiopathology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Middle Aged ; observational study ; Prospective Studies ; Risk ; risk markers ; Stroke Volume ; Ventricular Function, Left</subject><ispartof>European journal of heart failure, 2006-05, Vol.8 (3), p.237-242</ispartof><rights>2005 European Society of Cardiology 2005</rights><rights>Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. 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Risk stratification is the first step for primary prevention. Aim: To evaluate the use of risk markers for estimating sudden death risk. Methods and results: We prospectively examined 680 stable patients with CHF. Risk markers were evaluated using the Cox's proportional hazard model in a stepwise manner. Ejection fraction &lt;30%, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter &gt;60 mm, brain natriuretic peptide &gt;200 pg/ml, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and diabetes were significantly associated with increased risk of sudden death. When the number of risk markers were included as co-variables, only "number of risk markers ≥3" entered the model (hazard ratio 8.95, 95% confidence interval 4.57-17.52), while the effects of individual markers did not enter the model. The annual mortality from sudden death was 11% in patients with 3 or more risk markers and 1.4% in patients with 2 or less. Conclusions: Rather than particular risk markers, the number of accumulated risk markers was a more powerful predictor for sudden death in patients with CHF. The number of risk markers could be useful for risk stratification of sudden death.</description><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>brain natriuretic peptide</subject><subject>Death, Sudden - etiology</subject><subject>Diastole</subject><subject>ejection fraction</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>heart failure</subject><subject>Heart Failure - complications</subject><subject>Heart Failure - physiopathology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>observational study</subject><subject>Prospective Studies</subject><subject>Risk</subject><subject>risk markers</subject><subject>Stroke Volume</subject><subject>Ventricular Function, Left</subject><issn>1388-9842</issn><issn>1879-0844</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2006</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqNUU1P3DAQtRBVobQ_AeQTt4Rx7NjOkSLYLUL9kJDozUqcidYhm6R2IuDf421WVL1x8sjz3pt5bwg5ZZAyYPKiTbHdYOmnNAPIU9ApAD8gx0yrIgEtxGGsudZJoUV2RD6F0AIwBZB9JEdMMp0XmTgm7aW183buyskNPR0a6l14pNvSP6IPdPRYOzsFOm2Qut66GnuLO1iY61jTGstpEzt0jALYR-STix9244feWfp3QdqUrps9fiYfmrIL-GX_npD7m-v7q3Vy92P17eryLrFc5TwpeJblzKq6EE1mOShZ5QhCVoW0WDVWZVIKVNxWecmqKoc62ox2hBQNB8ZPyPkiO_rhz4xhMlsXLHZd2eMwByNVIZXWMgLzBWj9EILHxozeRecvhoHZZWxas8_Y7DI2oE3MOPLO9gPmaov1P9Y-1Aj4ugCeXIcv71M117frm_-nwCIyzOO7F0sWigsTPr-R4i2j6Zitefi-Mr_WbPWbwU_zwF8Bq5auQg</recordid><startdate>200605</startdate><enddate>200605</enddate><creator>Watanabe, Jun</creator><creator>Shinozaki, Tsuyoshi</creator><creator>Shiba, Nobuyuki</creator><creator>Fukahori, Kohei</creator><creator>Koseki, Yoshito</creator><creator>Karibe, Akihiko</creator><creator>Sakuma, Masahito</creator><creator>Miura, Masahito</creator><creator>Kagaya, Yutaka</creator><creator>Shirato, Kunio</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>Elsevier</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>200605</creationdate><title>Accumulation of risk markers predicts the incidence of sudden death in patients with chronic heart failure</title><author>Watanabe, Jun ; 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Risk stratification is the first step for primary prevention. Aim: To evaluate the use of risk markers for estimating sudden death risk. Methods and results: We prospectively examined 680 stable patients with CHF. Risk markers were evaluated using the Cox's proportional hazard model in a stepwise manner. Ejection fraction &lt;30%, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter &gt;60 mm, brain natriuretic peptide &gt;200 pg/ml, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and diabetes were significantly associated with increased risk of sudden death. When the number of risk markers were included as co-variables, only "number of risk markers ≥3" entered the model (hazard ratio 8.95, 95% confidence interval 4.57-17.52), while the effects of individual markers did not enter the model. The annual mortality from sudden death was 11% in patients with 3 or more risk markers and 1.4% in patients with 2 or less. 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subjects Adult
Aged
brain natriuretic peptide
Death, Sudden - etiology
Diastole
ejection fraction
Female
heart failure
Heart Failure - complications
Heart Failure - physiopathology
Humans
Incidence
Male
Middle Aged
observational study
Prospective Studies
Risk
risk markers
Stroke Volume
Ventricular Function, Left
title Accumulation of risk markers predicts the incidence of sudden death in patients with chronic heart failure
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