An approach to estimate the number of SARS cases imported by international air travel
The worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) raised questions about the risk of importation of such infection, in particular by air travel. Entry screening was implemented in some countries although poor evidence on its effectiveness is reported. We developed a model to estimate...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Epidemiology and infection 2009-07, Vol.137 (7), p.1019-1031 |
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| creator | GOUBAR, A. BITAR, D. CAO, W. C. FENG, D. FANG, L. Q. DESENCLOS, J. C. |
| description | The worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) raised questions about the risk of importation of such infection, in particular by air travel. Entry screening was implemented in some countries although poor evidence on its effectiveness is reported. We developed a model to estimate the number of imported SARS cases between regions, using the 2003 SARS epidemic data to apply this model for two scenarios: from Beijing to Frankfurt and from Hong Kong to London. We back-calculated the data to estimate individuals’ time of infection and built a model where every individual has a probability of being isolated, of traveling, and of being undetected at arrival. The findings, consistent with what was observed in 2003, suggest that entry screening does not affect the predicted number of imported cases. Inversely, importation depends on the transmission dynamic in the country of origin (including control measures in place) and on the intensity of air travel between regions. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1017/S0950268808001635 |
| format | Article |
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C. ; FENG, D. ; FANG, L. Q. ; DESENCLOS, J. C.</creator><creatorcontrib>GOUBAR, A. ; BITAR, D. ; CAO, W. C. ; FENG, D. ; FANG, L. Q. ; DESENCLOS, J. C.</creatorcontrib><description>The worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) raised questions about the risk of importation of such infection, in particular by air travel. Entry screening was implemented in some countries although poor evidence on its effectiveness is reported. We developed a model to estimate the number of imported SARS cases between regions, using the 2003 SARS epidemic data to apply this model for two scenarios: from Beijing to Frankfurt and from Hong Kong to London. We back-calculated the data to estimate individuals’ time of infection and built a model where every individual has a probability of being isolated, of traveling, and of being undetected at arrival. 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C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>FENG, D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>FANG, L. Q.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>DESENCLOS, J. C.</creatorcontrib><title>An approach to estimate the number of SARS cases imported by international air travel</title><title>Epidemiology and infection</title><addtitle>Epidemiol. Infect</addtitle><description>The worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) raised questions about the risk of importation of such infection, in particular by air travel. Entry screening was implemented in some countries although poor evidence on its effectiveness is reported. We developed a model to estimate the number of imported SARS cases between regions, using the 2003 SARS epidemic data to apply this model for two scenarios: from Beijing to Frankfurt and from Hong Kong to London. We back-calculated the data to estimate individuals’ time of infection and built a model where every individual has a probability of being isolated, of traveling, and of being undetected at arrival. The findings, consistent with what was observed in 2003, suggest that entry screening does not affect the predicted number of imported cases. Inversely, importation depends on the transmission dynamic in the country of origin (including control measures in place) and on the intensity of air travel between regions.</description><subject>Air travel</subject><subject>Aircraft</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Biological Products</subject><subject>Communicable Disease Control - methods</subject><subject>Disease models</subject><subject>Disease Outbreaks</subject><subject>Entry screening</subject><subject>Epidemics</subject><subject>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</subject><subject>Hong Kong - epidemiology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>importation</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Infectious diseases</subject><subject>Influenza</subject><subject>Influenza, Legionnaires' Disease and Respiratory Infections</subject><subject>international travel</subject><subject>London - epidemiology</subject><subject>Mass Screening</subject><subject>Microbiology</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>Monte Carlo Method</subject><subject>Monte Carlo simulation</subject><subject>SARS</subject><subject>SARS coronavirus</subject><subject>Severe acute respiratory syndrome</subject><subject>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - epidemiology</subject><subject>Symptoms</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Travel</subject><subject>Vehicular flight</subject><issn>0950-2688</issn><issn>1469-4409</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2009</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkUtv1DAURi0EokPhB7AAWUiwC1w_4sdyVKAgVYJ22nV0nTg0Qx6D7SD673E0o6kEQqy8-M698rkfIc8ZvGXA9LsN2BK4MgYMAFOifEBWTCpbSAn2IVktcbHkJ-RJjFsAsNzox-SEWdDWSLUiN-uR4m4XJqxvaZqoj6kbMHmabj0d58H5QKeWbtZXG1pj9JF2w24KyTfU3dFuTD6MmLppxJ5iF2gK-NP3T8mjFvvonx3eU3Lz8cP12afi4sv557P1RVGXQqaicQ2ClAqZdK1Q2LQNeGzBGNGWrmYOnGu0NsYiaC1YqbxF3SjVcuTKoTglb_Z7s8CPOf-9GrpY-77H0U9zrJTmiyb8F-TAwbCSZfDVH-B2mrNivzCltLrkNkNsD9VhijH4ttqFfLVwVzGolmaqv5rJMy8Pi2c3-OZ-4lBFBl4fAIw19m3Ase7ikeOsNMZwkbkXe24b0xSOuQDOmWaLarHPu5j8r2OO4Xs-h9Blpc4vqysh32_M5XX1NfPiIIODC13zzd8r_1vnN5YivMo</recordid><startdate>20090701</startdate><enddate>20090701</enddate><creator>GOUBAR, A.</creator><creator>BITAR, D.</creator><creator>CAO, W. 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| language | eng |
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| source | Jstor Complete Legacy; MEDLINE; PubMed Central |
| subjects | Air travel Aircraft Biological and medical sciences Biological Products Communicable Disease Control - methods Disease models Disease Outbreaks Entry screening Epidemics Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Hong Kong - epidemiology Humans importation Infections Infectious diseases Influenza Influenza, Legionnaires' Disease and Respiratory Infections international travel London - epidemiology Mass Screening Microbiology Models, Biological Monte Carlo Method Monte Carlo simulation SARS SARS coronavirus Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - epidemiology Symptoms Time Factors Travel Vehicular flight |
| title | An approach to estimate the number of SARS cases imported by international air travel |
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