Independent and additional prognostic value of aminoterminal propeptide of type III procollagen circulating levels in patients with chronic heart failure

In chronic heart failure (CHF), changes in the extracellular space contribute to cardiac dysfunction. We aimed to determine whether aminoterminal-propeptide of type III procollagen (PIIINP), a marker of extracellular matrix turnover, might provide prognostic information in CHF patients. A total of 101 consecutive CHF patients (mean age 61.7 ± 8.7 years, 88% males) were followed up between 1999 and 2001. The combined endpoint of the study was death and hospitalization for heart failure. During follow-up there were 15 deaths and 11 hospitalizations for worsening heart failure. At the survival analysis, age (P=.02), New York Heart Association class (P=.014), s-creatinine (P=.014), plasma-PIIINP (p-PIIINP) levels (P=.005), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (P=.0002), and a restrictive mitral filling pattern (P=.0003) predicted event-free survival. At the multivariate analysis, p-PIIINP levels predicted outcome independently of other clinical variables, hormones, and echocardiographic and exercise testing variables (P < .05 in all models). In patients with LVEF 4.7 μg/L levels was significantly associated with a higher risk of death and hospitalization as compared with the other patients (event-free survival rate at 12 months: 45% versus 95%; at 24 months: 27% versus 88%; at 36 months: 18% versus 85%, P < .0001). In patients with CHF, PIIINP levels predict outcome independently of clinical status, hemodynamics and hormonal activation. PIIINP levels provide additional prognostic information to that of left ventricular function alone, suggesting that it may reflect more than cardiac extracellular matrix turnover.