Spatio-temporal variability in the transmission of dengue in Buenos Aires City

Cases of dengue detected in Buenos Aires City between 1999 and 2000 confirmed the possibility of epidemic outbreaks. The activity of its vector Aedes aegypi was monitored to study the spatial and temporal risk of dengue transmission. Adult oviposition activity of Aedes aegypti showed an heterogeneous spatio-temporal distribution pattern. It was detected between October and May. The vector was detected from spring to fall in the Northern, Western and Southern areas of the city (periphery) and only in summer in the Eastern part (downtown-river). The proportion of infested sites differed between the three periods but the infested areas coincided spatially. Although a spatial and temporal heterogeneity exists, the pattern repeated itself during the three periods suggesting stable dynamics. The not infested areas presented the highest population and employees densities while the areas infested during the three periods the lowest. This might represent an attenuation of the risk, because higher densities do not coincide with higher infestation. From the point of view of the vector the risk of transmission would concentrate between January and March and occupy 50% of the city surface in the periphery.