Bounding Disagreements about Treatment Effects: A Case Study of Sentencing and Recidivism
Empirical inference on treatment effects is a core objective of social science research. The conventional practice is to obtain point estimates of treatment effects using models that make strong and thereby controversial assumptions about treatment selection and outcomes. In this paper we obtain bou...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Sociological methodology 1998-01, Vol.28 (1), p.99-137 |
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| container_title | Sociological methodology |
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| creator | Manski, Charles F. Nagin, Daniel S. |
| description | Empirical inference on treatment effects is a core objective of social science research. The conventional practice is to obtain point estimates of treatment effects using models that make strong and thereby controversial assumptions about treatment selection and outcomes. In this paper we obtain bounds under weak nonparametric assumptions and explore how the bounds vary with the assumptions imposed. This mode of analysis clarifies the source of common disagreements about the magnitudes and signs of treatment effects. We use a treatment question facing the juvenile justice system to showcase the value of the approach in empirical social science research. We compare the impacts on recidivism of the two main sentencing options available to judges: confinement in residential treatment facilities and diversion to nonresidential treatment. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/0081-1750.00043 |
| format | Article |
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The conventional practice is to obtain point estimates of treatment effects using models that make strong and thereby controversial assumptions about treatment selection and outcomes. In this paper we obtain bounds under weak nonparametric assumptions and explore how the bounds vary with the assumptions imposed. This mode of analysis clarifies the source of common disagreements about the magnitudes and signs of treatment effects. We use a treatment question facing the juvenile justice system to showcase the value of the approach in empirical social science research. We compare the impacts on recidivism of the two main sentencing options available to judges: confinement in residential treatment facilities and diversion to nonresidential treatment.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0081-1750</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1467-9531</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/0081-1750.00043</identifier><identifier>CODEN: SOMEDX</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Boston, USA and Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishers</publisher><subject>Bounds ; Case studies ; Criminal sentencing ; Criminals ; Data analysis ; Decision making ; Disposition ; Empirical research ; Estimating Treatment Effects ; Event History Analysis ; Judicial Decisions ; Justice ; Juvenile Courts ; Juvenile delinquency ; Juvenile justice ; Juvenile Offenders ; Medical referrals ; Methodology ; Methodology (Data Analysis) ; Modeling ; Observational research ; Optimization ; Outcomes ; Punishment Rehabilitation Relationship ; Recidivism ; Relationship ; Residential treatment ; Science ; Sentencing ; Social research ; Social science research ; Social sciences ; Sociology ; Statistical Inference ; Utah ; Variables ; Young offenders</subject><ispartof>Sociological methodology, 1998-01, Vol.28 (1), p.99-137</ispartof><rights>Copyright 1998 American Sociological Association</rights><rights>Blackwell Publishers Inc</rights><rights>Copyright American Sociological Association 1998</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/270965$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/270965$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,799,4010,27846,27900,27901,27902,30977,33752,57992,58225</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Manski, Charles F.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nagin, Daniel S.</creatorcontrib><title>Bounding Disagreements about Treatment Effects: A Case Study of Sentencing and Recidivism</title><title>Sociological methodology</title><description>Empirical inference on treatment effects is a core objective of social science research. The conventional practice is to obtain point estimates of treatment effects using models that make strong and thereby controversial assumptions about treatment selection and outcomes. In this paper we obtain bounds under weak nonparametric assumptions and explore how the bounds vary with the assumptions imposed. This mode of analysis clarifies the source of common disagreements about the magnitudes and signs of treatment effects. We use a treatment question facing the juvenile justice system to showcase the value of the approach in empirical social science research. We compare the impacts on recidivism of the two main sentencing options available to judges: confinement in residential treatment facilities and diversion to nonresidential treatment.</description><subject>Bounds</subject><subject>Case studies</subject><subject>Criminal sentencing</subject><subject>Criminals</subject><subject>Data analysis</subject><subject>Decision making</subject><subject>Disposition</subject><subject>Empirical research</subject><subject>Estimating Treatment Effects</subject><subject>Event History Analysis</subject><subject>Judicial Decisions</subject><subject>Justice</subject><subject>Juvenile Courts</subject><subject>Juvenile delinquency</subject><subject>Juvenile justice</subject><subject>Juvenile Offenders</subject><subject>Medical referrals</subject><subject>Methodology</subject><subject>Methodology (Data Analysis)</subject><subject>Modeling</subject><subject>Observational research</subject><subject>Optimization</subject><subject>Outcomes</subject><subject>Punishment Rehabilitation Relationship</subject><subject>Recidivism</subject><subject>Relationship</subject><subject>Residential treatment</subject><subject>Science</subject><subject>Sentencing</subject><subject>Social research</subject><subject>Social science research</subject><subject>Social sciences</subject><subject>Sociology</subject><subject>Statistical Inference</subject><subject>Utah</subject><subject>Variables</subject><subject>Young 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| source | Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA); Jstor Complete Legacy; Sociological Abstracts; Periodicals Index Online |
| subjects | Bounds Case studies Criminal sentencing Criminals Data analysis Decision making Disposition Empirical research Estimating Treatment Effects Event History Analysis Judicial Decisions Justice Juvenile Courts Juvenile delinquency Juvenile justice Juvenile Offenders Medical referrals Methodology Methodology (Data Analysis) Modeling Observational research Optimization Outcomes Punishment Rehabilitation Relationship Recidivism Relationship Residential treatment Science Sentencing Social research Social science research Social sciences Sociology Statistical Inference Utah Variables Young offenders |
| title | Bounding Disagreements about Treatment Effects: A Case Study of Sentencing and Recidivism |
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