Simulating travel reliability
We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. Th...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Regional science and urban economics 1998-09, Vol.28 (5), p.535-564 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 564 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 5 |
| container_start_page | 535 |
| container_title | Regional science and urban economics |
| container_volume | 28 |
| creator | Noland, Robert B. Small, Kenneth A. Koskenoja, Pia Maria Chu, Xuehao |
| description | We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/S0166-0462(98)00009-X |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_61136472</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><els_id>S016604629800009X</els_id><sourcerecordid>61136472</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c652t-7a678c71a7c11e0aae7c950c7e1f3a3b711641ec1d1c672c7baacf368dabd50d3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqFkVtLAzEQhYMoWC8_QRAF0YfVTLKby5NI8Yrggwq-DWl2qpFttybbQv-9WSs-CGLgzOThm0Myh7E94KfAQZ095qIKXipxbM0Jz8cWL2tsAEbbQkhu1tngB9lkWym9ZwaUkAO29xgm88Z1Yfq630W3oGY_UhPcKDShW-6wjbFrEu1-9232fHX5NLwp7h-ub4cX94VXlegK7ZQ2XoPTHoC4c6S9rbjXBGPp5EgDqBLIQw1eaeH1yDk_lsrUblRXvJbb7GjlO4vtx5xSh5OQPDWNm1I7T6gApCq1-BeURpWltWUGD36B7-08TvMnUPQrkRp0hg7_gsBIa6WyQmWqWlE-tilFGuMshomLSwSOfQD4FQD220Vr8CsAfMlzd6u5SDPyP0NEFOmVfIsLlE6YXJZZYG1_DVlV1qzvssJKlfjWTbLZ-cqMcgyLQBGTDzT1VIdIvsO6Df885xP42KQR</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1839936926</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Simulating travel reliability</title><source>RePEc</source><source>Worldwide Political Science Abstracts</source><source>Periodicals Index Online</source><source>Access via ScienceDirect (Elsevier)</source><creator>Noland, Robert B. ; Small, Kenneth A. ; Koskenoja, Pia Maria ; Chu, Xuehao</creator><creatorcontrib>Noland, Robert B. ; Small, Kenneth A. ; Koskenoja, Pia Maria ; Chu, Xuehao</creatorcontrib><description>We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0166-0462</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1879-2308</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/S0166-0462(98)00009-X</identifier><identifier>CODEN: RGUEA3</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Departure time ; Economic models ; Reliability ; Scheduling choice ; Simulation ; Simulation and Games ; Stated preference ; Studies ; Supply & demand ; Temporal dimension ; Transport ; Transport policy ; Transportation ; Transportation economics ; Travel ; Uncertainty</subject><ispartof>Regional science and urban economics, 1998-09, Vol.28 (5), p.535-564</ispartof><rights>1998 Elsevier Science B.V.</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Sequoia S.A. Sep 1998</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c652t-7a678c71a7c11e0aae7c950c7e1f3a3b711641ec1d1c672c7baacf368dabd50d3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c652t-7a678c71a7c11e0aae7c950c7e1f3a3b711641ec1d1c672c7baacf368dabd50d3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0166-0462(98)00009-X$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,3550,4008,27869,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeregeco/v_3a28_3ay_3a1998_3ai_3a5_3ap_3a535-564.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Noland, Robert B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Small, Kenneth A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Koskenoja, Pia Maria</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chu, Xuehao</creatorcontrib><title>Simulating travel reliability</title><title>Regional science and urban economics</title><description>We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations.</description><subject>Departure time</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Reliability</subject><subject>Scheduling choice</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Simulation and Games</subject><subject>Stated preference</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Supply & demand</subject><subject>Temporal dimension</subject><subject>Transport</subject><subject>Transport policy</subject><subject>Transportation</subject><subject>Transportation economics</subject><subject>Travel</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><issn>0166-0462</issn><issn>1879-2308</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1998</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>X2L</sourceid><sourceid>K30</sourceid><sourceid>7UB</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkVtLAzEQhYMoWC8_QRAF0YfVTLKby5NI8Yrggwq-DWl2qpFttybbQv-9WSs-CGLgzOThm0Myh7E94KfAQZ095qIKXipxbM0Jz8cWL2tsAEbbQkhu1tngB9lkWym9ZwaUkAO29xgm88Z1Yfq630W3oGY_UhPcKDShW-6wjbFrEu1-9232fHX5NLwp7h-ub4cX94VXlegK7ZQ2XoPTHoC4c6S9rbjXBGPp5EgDqBLIQw1eaeH1yDk_lsrUblRXvJbb7GjlO4vtx5xSh5OQPDWNm1I7T6gApCq1-BeURpWltWUGD36B7-08TvMnUPQrkRp0hg7_gsBIa6WyQmWqWlE-tilFGuMshomLSwSOfQD4FQD220Vr8CsAfMlzd6u5SDPyP0NEFOmVfIsLlE6YXJZZYG1_DVlV1qzvssJKlfjWTbLZ-cqMcgyLQBGTDzT1VIdIvsO6Df885xP42KQR</recordid><startdate>19980901</startdate><enddate>19980901</enddate><creator>Noland, Robert B.</creator><creator>Small, Kenneth A.</creator><creator>Koskenoja, Pia Maria</creator><creator>Chu, Xuehao</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier</general><general>North-Holland</general><general>Elsevier Sequoia S.A</general><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>JQCIK</scope><scope>K30</scope><scope>PAAUG</scope><scope>PAWHS</scope><scope>PAWZZ</scope><scope>PAXOH</scope><scope>PBHAV</scope><scope>PBQSW</scope><scope>PBYQZ</scope><scope>PCIWU</scope><scope>PCMID</scope><scope>PCZJX</scope><scope>PDGRG</scope><scope>PDWWI</scope><scope>PETMR</scope><scope>PFVGT</scope><scope>PGXDX</scope><scope>PIHIL</scope><scope>PISVA</scope><scope>PJCTQ</scope><scope>PJTMS</scope><scope>PLCHJ</scope><scope>PMHAD</scope><scope>PNQDJ</scope><scope>POUND</scope><scope>PPLAD</scope><scope>PQAPC</scope><scope>PQCAN</scope><scope>PQCMW</scope><scope>PQEME</scope><scope>PQHKH</scope><scope>PQMID</scope><scope>PQNCT</scope><scope>PQNET</scope><scope>PQSCT</scope><scope>PQSET</scope><scope>PSVJG</scope><scope>PVMQY</scope><scope>PZGFC</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>7UB</scope></search><sort><creationdate>19980901</creationdate><title>Simulating travel reliability</title><author>Noland, Robert B. ; Small, Kenneth A. ; Koskenoja, Pia Maria ; Chu, Xuehao</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c652t-7a678c71a7c11e0aae7c950c7e1f3a3b711641ec1d1c672c7baacf368dabd50d3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1998</creationdate><topic>Departure time</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Reliability</topic><topic>Scheduling choice</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Simulation and Games</topic><topic>Stated preference</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Supply & demand</topic><topic>Temporal dimension</topic><topic>Transport</topic><topic>Transport policy</topic><topic>Transportation</topic><topic>Transportation economics</topic><topic>Travel</topic><topic>Uncertainty</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Noland, Robert B.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Small, Kenneth A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Koskenoja, Pia Maria</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chu, Xuehao</creatorcontrib><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segment 33</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - International</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - West</collection><collection>Periodicals Index Online Segments 1-50</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - MEA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Canada</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - West</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - EMEALA</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Midwest</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - North Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Northeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - South Central</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access & Build (Plan A) - Southeast</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access (Plan D) - UK / I</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - APAC</collection><collection>Primary Sources Access—Foundation Edition (Plan E) - MEA</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Worldwide Political Science Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Regional science and urban economics</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Noland, Robert B.</au><au>Small, Kenneth A.</au><au>Koskenoja, Pia Maria</au><au>Chu, Xuehao</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Simulating travel reliability</atitle><jtitle>Regional science and urban economics</jtitle><date>1998-09-01</date><risdate>1998</risdate><volume>28</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>535</spage><epage>564</epage><pages>535-564</pages><issn>0166-0462</issn><eissn>1879-2308</eissn><coden>RGUEA3</coden><abstract>We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations.</abstract><cop>Amsterdam</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/S0166-0462(98)00009-X</doi><tpages>30</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0166-0462 |
| ispartof | Regional science and urban economics, 1998-09, Vol.28 (5), p.535-564 |
| issn | 0166-0462 1879-2308 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_61136472 |
| source | RePEc; Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; Periodicals Index Online; Access via ScienceDirect (Elsevier) |
| subjects | Departure time Economic models Reliability Scheduling choice Simulation Simulation and Games Stated preference Studies Supply & demand Temporal dimension Transport Transport policy Transportation Transportation economics Travel Uncertainty |
| title | Simulating travel reliability |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-27T16%3A46%3A37IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Simulating%20travel%20reliability&rft.jtitle=Regional%20science%20and%20urban%20economics&rft.au=Noland,%20Robert%20B.&rft.date=1998-09-01&rft.volume=28&rft.issue=5&rft.spage=535&rft.epage=564&rft.pages=535-564&rft.issn=0166-0462&rft.eissn=1879-2308&rft.coden=RGUEA3&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016/S0166-0462(98)00009-X&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E61136472%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1839936926&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_els_id=S016604629800009X&rfr_iscdi=true |