Assessing swings in multi-party systems: The Indian experience

India has a single member, first-past-the-post system. Owing to the importance of wasted votes in a multi-party system, the relation between votes and seats cannot be explained by traditional swing analysis. In this paper a measure of vote-splitting 1 is developed and used to decompose changes in ma...

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Veröffentlicht in:Electoral studies 1984-08, Vol.3 (2), p.171-189
Hauptverfasser: Lahiri, Ashok K., Roy, Prannoy
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Roy, Prannoy
description India has a single member, first-past-the-post system. Owing to the importance of wasted votes in a multi-party system, the relation between votes and seats cannot be explained by traditional swing analysis. In this paper a measure of vote-splitting 1 is developed and used to decompose changes in margins into the ‘swing’ and the ‘split’. This method of analysis is applied to the study of electoral change in India and its usefulness for prediction is examined.
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source Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete; Worldwide Political Science Abstracts; Periodicals Index Online
subjects COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
INDIA
POLITICAL PARTY
POLITICAL SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
PREDICTION OF FUTURE EVENTS
TRADITION
VOTING
title Assessing swings in multi-party systems: The Indian experience
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