An Event Data Analysis of Third-Party Mediation in the Middle East and Balkans
Event data on the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Palestinian conflicts in the Levant (1979-1999) and the Serbia-Croatia and Serbia-Bosnia conflicts in the Balkans (1991-1999) are used to test two sets of process-related hypotheses embedded in the theoretical and qualitative literatures on mediation. Cros...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The Journal of conflict resolution 2004-06, Vol.48 (3), p.310-330 |
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| container_title | The Journal of conflict resolution |
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| creator | Schrodt, Philip A. Gerner, Deborah J. |
| description | Event data on the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Palestinian conflicts in the Levant (1979-1999) and the Serbia-Croatia and Serbia-Bosnia conflicts in the Balkans (1991-1999) are used to test two sets of process-related hypotheses embedded in the theoretical and qualitative literatures on mediation. Cross-correlation analysis is used to examine the time delay in the effects of mediation on the level of violence over time. Results show that these effects vary somewhat, depending on the conflict, and differ substantially, depending on who is conducting the mediation. Whether conflict reduction is most effectively achieved with sanctions or rewards is tested. Results show that a reduction in violence is generally associated with mediation combined with conflictual action directed toward both of the antagonists and combined with cooperative action directed to the weaker antagonist. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1177/0022002704264137 |
| format | Article |
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Cross-correlation analysis is used to examine the time delay in the effects of mediation on the level of violence over time. Results show that these effects vary somewhat, depending on the conflict, and differ substantially, depending on who is conducting the mediation. Whether conflict reduction is most effectively achieved with sanctions or rewards is tested. 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Cross-correlation analysis is used to examine the time delay in the effects of mediation on the level of violence over time. Results show that these effects vary somewhat, depending on the conflict, and differ substantially, depending on who is conducting the mediation. Whether conflict reduction is most effectively achieved with sanctions or rewards is tested. Results show that a reduction in violence is generally associated with mediation combined with conflictual action directed toward both of the antagonists and combined with cooperative action directed to the weaker antagonist.</description><subject>Antagonists</subject><subject>Arab Israeli Relations</subject><subject>Armed conflict</subject><subject>Balkan States</subject><subject>Case Studies</subject><subject>Coding</subject><subject>Conflict</subject><subject>Conflict Resolution</subject><subject>Cooperation</subject><subject>Correlation</subject><subject>Correlations</subject><subject>Critical values</subject><subject>Data Analysis</subject><subject>Datasets</subject><subject>Ethnic Relations</subject><subject>European Union</subject><subject>Failure</subject><subject>Foreign policy</subject><subject>Hypotheses</subject><subject>International Conflict</subject><subject>International cooperation</subject><subject>International organizations</subject><subject>International 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| subjects | Antagonists Arab Israeli Relations Armed conflict Balkan States Case Studies Coding Conflict Conflict Resolution Cooperation Correlation Correlations Critical values Data Analysis Datasets Ethnic Relations European Union Failure Foreign policy Hypotheses International Conflict International cooperation International organizations International relations Mediation Mediators Middle East Peace studies Political Violence Research design Sanctions Southeast Europe Statistical Analysis Stimuli Studies Third party Time series Time series analysis Variables Violence |
| title | An Event Data Analysis of Third-Party Mediation in the Middle East and Balkans |
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