Is monetary policy important for forecasting real growth and inflation?
We hypothesize that if monetary policy is important in explaining movements in output and inflation then it should follow that more accurate forecasts of monetary policy, on average, will tend to produce more accurate forecasts of growth and inflation. Using data from the Survey of Professional Fore...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of policy modeling 2005-03, Vol.27 (2), p.177-187 |
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| container_end_page | 187 |
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| container_title | Journal of policy modeling |
| container_volume | 27 |
| creator | Gamber, Edward N. Hakes, David R. |
| description | We hypothesize that if monetary policy is important in explaining movements in output and inflation then it should follow that more accurate forecasts of monetary policy, on average, will tend to produce more accurate forecasts of growth and inflation. Using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters we find that improved monetary policy forecast accuracy corresponds to lower variance of forecast errors for growth and inflation but very little reduction in the overall average size of forecast errors for growth and inflation. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2004.12.008 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | Journal of policy modeling, 2005-03, Vol.27 (2), p.177-187 |
| issn | 0161-8938 1873-8060 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_58868210 |
| source | RePEc; PAIS Index; Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals |
| subjects | Economic forecasting Forecast accuracy Hypotheses Inflation Monetary policy Studies Survey of Professional Forecasters |
| title | Is monetary policy important for forecasting real growth and inflation? |
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