Energy consumption, survey data and the prediction of industrial production in Italy: a comparison and combination of different models

We investigate the prediction of italian industrial production and first specify a model based on electricity consumption showing that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model,...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of forecasting 2000-09, Vol.19 (5), p.419-440
Hauptverfasser: Marchetti, Domenico J., Parigi, Giuseppe
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creator Marchetti, Domenico J.
Parigi, Giuseppe
description We investigate the prediction of italian industrial production and first specify a model based on electricity consumption showing that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model, with no gains in predictive power. We also analyse the performance of models based on data of two different business surveys. According to the standard statistics of forecasting accuracy, the linear energy‐based model is not outperformed by any other model, nor by a combination of forecasts. However, a more comprehensive set of evaluation criteria sheds light on the relative merit of each individual model. A modelling strategy which makes full use of all information available is proposed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
doi_str_mv 10.1002/1099-131X(200009)19:5<419::AID-FOR749>3.0.CO;2-J
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source Business Source Complete; Access via Wiley Online Library
subjects Business cycles
combination of forecasts
Comparative analysis
Economic models
Electric power
Electricity
Electricity distribution
Energy consumption
Forecasting
Forecasts
Households
Industrial production
Information sources
Italy
Regression analysis
smooth transition regression
Studies
Survey data
Variables
title Energy consumption, survey data and the prediction of industrial production in Italy: a comparison and combination of different models
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