Forecasting murder within a population of probationers and parolees: a high stakes application of statistical learning

Forecasts of future dangerousness are often used to inform the sentencing decisions of convicted offenders. For individuals who are sentenced to probation or paroled to community supervision, such forecasts affect the conditions under which they are to be supervised. The statistical criterion for th...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society Statistics in society, 2009, Vol.172 (1), p.191-211
Hauptverfasser:	Berk, Richard, Sherman, Lawrence, Barnes, Geoffrey, Kurtz, Ellen, Ahlman, Lindsay
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Analytical forecasting Applications Criminal justice Criminal probation Criminals Exact sciences and technology False negative errors False positive errors Forecasting Forecasts Forensic psychiatry General topics Homicide Inference from stochastic processes time series analysis Markov processes Mathematics Methodology Murder Murders & murder attempts Offenders Parole Parole & probation Pennsylvania Prior convictions Probability and statistics Probability theory and stochastic processes Probation Random forests Recidivism Sciences and techniques of general use Statistical forecasts Statistical learning Statistical methods Statistics Supervision U.S.A
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