BIASES IN MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: IRRATIONALITY OR ASYMMETRIC LOSS?

Empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational. We establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell wheth...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of the European Economic Association 2008-03, Vol.6 (1), p.122-157
Hauptverfasser:	Elliott, Graham, Komunjer, Ivana, Timmermann, Allan
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Analytical forecasting Econometric models Economic activity Economic expectations Economic forecasting Economic forecasts Economic value Error rates Forecasting models Forecasting standards Inflation rates Macroeconomics Rational expectations Rationality Real output
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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