Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models

Recently developed corporate bankruptcy prediction models adopt a contingent claims valuation approach. However, despite their theoretical appeal, tests of their performance compared with traditional simple accounting-ratio-based approaches are limited in the literature. We find the two approaches c...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of banking & finance 2008-08, Vol.32 (8), p.1541-1551
Hauptverfasser: Agarwal, Vineet, Taffler, Richard
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Taffler, Richard
description Recently developed corporate bankruptcy prediction models adopt a contingent claims valuation approach. However, despite their theoretical appeal, tests of their performance compared with traditional simple accounting-ratio-based approaches are limited in the literature. We find the two approaches capture different aspects of bankruptcy risk, and while there is little difference in their predictive ability in the UK, the z-score approach leads to significantly greater bank profitability in conditions of differential decision error costs and competitive pricing regime.
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subjects Accounting
Bank profitability
Bankruptcy
Comparative analysis
Credit risk
Failure prediction
Forecasts
Market
Model testing
Option-pricing models
Pricing
Risk
Studies
Valuation methods
Z-score
title Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models
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