Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?

This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns using Markov-switching models. Different measures of a monetary policy stance are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the Standard & Poor's 500 price index suggests that monetary policy h...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of money, credit and banking credit and banking, 2007-03, Vol.39 (2-3), p.667-688
1. Verfasser: CHEN, SHIU-SHENG
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description This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns using Markov-switching models. Different measures of a monetary policy stance are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the Standard & Poor's 500 price index suggests that monetary policy has larger effects on stock returns in bear markets. Furthermore, it is shown that a contractionary monetary policy leads to a higher probability of switching to the bear-market regime.
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ispartof Journal of money, credit and banking, 2007-03, Vol.39 (2-3), p.667-688
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source Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Jstor Complete Legacy
subjects Analysis
Asymmetry
Bank credit
Bear markets
Bears
Bull markets
Critical values
E32
E52
Federal funds rate
Finance
Forecasts and trends
G10
Linear models
Market trend/market analysis
Markov analysis
Markov-switching
Markovian processes
Monetary policy
Prices and rates
Probability
Securities markets
Stock exchange
Stock market
Stock markets
Stock prices
Stock returns
Stocks
Studies
Transition probabilities
U.S.A
Vector autoregression
title Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?
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