Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?
This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns using Markov-switching models. Different measures of a monetary policy stance are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the Standard & Poor's 500 price index suggests that monetary policy h...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of money, credit and banking credit and banking, 2007-03, Vol.39 (2-3), p.667-688 |
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container_title | Journal of money, credit and banking |
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creator | CHEN, SHIU-SHENG |
description | This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns using Markov-switching models. Different measures of a monetary policy stance are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the Standard & Poor's 500 price index suggests that monetary policy has larger effects on stock returns in bear markets. Furthermore, it is shown that a contractionary monetary policy leads to a higher probability of switching to the bear-market regime. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00040.x |
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Different measures of a monetary policy stance are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the Standard & Poor's 500 price index suggests that monetary policy has larger effects on stock returns in bear markets. Furthermore, it is shown that a contractionary monetary policy leads to a higher probability of switching to the bear-market regime.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0022-2879</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1538-4616</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00040.x</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JMCBBT</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Malden, USA: Blackwell Publishing Inc</publisher><subject>Analysis ; Asymmetry ; Bank credit ; Bear markets ; Bears ; Bull markets ; Critical values ; E32 ; E52 ; Federal funds rate ; Finance ; Forecasts and trends ; G10 ; Linear models ; Market trend/market analysis ; Markov analysis ; Markov-switching ; Markovian processes ; Monetary policy ; Prices and rates ; Probability ; Securities markets ; Stock exchange ; Stock market ; Stock markets ; Stock prices ; Stock returns ; Stocks ; Studies ; Transition probabilities ; U.S.A ; Vector autoregression</subject><ispartof>Journal of money, credit and banking, 2007-03, Vol.39 (2-3), p.667-688</ispartof><rights>Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.</rights><rights>Copyright Ohio State University Press Mar/Apr 2007</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c7530-d4184ad940df08a6e207a7e02487c348ae9ab0a11ff6474318125fcb929771033</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c7530-d4184ad940df08a6e207a7e02487c348ae9ab0a11ff6474318125fcb929771033</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/4494266$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/4494266$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,799,1411,27903,27904,45553,45554,57995,58228</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>CHEN, SHIU-SHENG</creatorcontrib><title>Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?</title><title>Journal of money, credit and banking</title><addtitle>Journal of Money, Credit & Banking</addtitle><description>This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns using Markov-switching models. Different measures of a monetary policy stance are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the Standard & Poor's 500 price index suggests that monetary policy has larger effects on stock returns in bear markets. Furthermore, it is shown that a contractionary monetary policy leads to a higher probability of switching to the bear-market regime.</description><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Asymmetry</subject><subject>Bank credit</subject><subject>Bear markets</subject><subject>Bears</subject><subject>Bull markets</subject><subject>Critical values</subject><subject>E32</subject><subject>E52</subject><subject>Federal funds rate</subject><subject>Finance</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>G10</subject><subject>Linear models</subject><subject>Market trend/market analysis</subject><subject>Markov analysis</subject><subject>Markov-switching</subject><subject>Markovian processes</subject><subject>Monetary policy</subject><subject>Prices and rates</subject><subject>Probability</subject><subject>Securities markets</subject><subject>Stock exchange</subject><subject>Stock market</subject><subject>Stock markets</subject><subject>Stock prices</subject><subject>Stock returns</subject><subject>Stocks</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Transition probabilities</subject><subject>U.S.A</subject><subject>Vector autoregression</subject><issn>0022-2879</issn><issn>1538-4616</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2007</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqNkt9v0zAQxyMEEmXwH_AQgYTEQ4odO7HzAFMXtm6o6wYD9njy3EuVLo2HnbL2v-dKp0pFFZr94F-f7-nu_I2imLM-p_Fh1mcsTZNUq6KfMqboyCTrL59EPZ4Jncic50-j3hZ6Hr0IYUZQkUneiz59dhjic9diZ_wqvnRNbVfxqfmN8SCs5nPsfG3j46pC24XYtfFV5-xt_A27hW_D4cvoWWWagK8e1oPox8nx9_I0GV0Mz8rBKLEqEyyZSK6lmRSSTSqmTY4pU0YhS6VWVkhtsDA3zHBeVblUUnDN06yyN0VaKMWZEAfRu03cO-9-LTB0MK-DxaYxLbpFAJHnQue5JPDNP-DMUaaUG_AiE7JQMiXo7QaamgahbivXeWPXEWHAc0F9E1wRleyhptiiNw01rKrpeofv7-FpTnBe272C9zsCYjpcdlOzCAHOrsaPZvVw9L_EH1jrmganCPQx5cUurze89S4EjxXc-XpOdgDOYG0ymMHaP7D2D6xNBn9NBkuSftxI76m21aN18OW8PKId6V9v9LPQOb_VS1nIlL50W0kdqILts_G3kCuhMrgeD0FfXg_Ln1-PYCz-AAxj6Fs</recordid><startdate>200703</startdate><enddate>200703</enddate><creator>CHEN, SHIU-SHENG</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Inc</general><general>Blackwell Publishing</general><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>Ohio State University Press</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8GL</scope><scope>ISN</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>200703</creationdate><title>Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?</title><author>CHEN, SHIU-SHENG</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c7530-d4184ad940df08a6e207a7e02487c348ae9ab0a11ff6474318125fcb929771033</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2007</creationdate><topic>Analysis</topic><topic>Asymmetry</topic><topic>Bank credit</topic><topic>Bear markets</topic><topic>Bears</topic><topic>Bull markets</topic><topic>Critical values</topic><topic>E32</topic><topic>E52</topic><topic>Federal funds rate</topic><topic>Finance</topic><topic>Forecasts and trends</topic><topic>G10</topic><topic>Linear models</topic><topic>Market trend/market analysis</topic><topic>Markov analysis</topic><topic>Markov-switching</topic><topic>Markovian processes</topic><topic>Monetary policy</topic><topic>Prices and rates</topic><topic>Probability</topic><topic>Securities markets</topic><topic>Stock exchange</topic><topic>Stock market</topic><topic>Stock markets</topic><topic>Stock prices</topic><topic>Stock returns</topic><topic>Stocks</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Transition probabilities</topic><topic>U.S.A</topic><topic>Vector autoregression</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>CHEN, SHIU-SHENG</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale In Context: High School</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Canada</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>Journal of money, credit and banking</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>CHEN, SHIU-SHENG</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?</atitle><jtitle>Journal of money, credit and banking</jtitle><addtitle>Journal of Money, Credit & Banking</addtitle><date>2007-03</date><risdate>2007</risdate><volume>39</volume><issue>2-3</issue><spage>667</spage><epage>688</epage><pages>667-688</pages><issn>0022-2879</issn><eissn>1538-4616</eissn><coden>JMCBBT</coden><abstract>This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns using Markov-switching models. Different measures of a monetary policy stance are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the Standard & Poor's 500 price index suggests that monetary policy has larger effects on stock returns in bear markets. Furthermore, it is shown that a contractionary monetary policy leads to a higher probability of switching to the bear-market regime.</abstract><cop>Malden, USA</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Inc</pub><doi>10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00040.x</doi><tpages>22</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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source | Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Jstor Complete Legacy |
subjects | Analysis Asymmetry Bank credit Bear markets Bears Bull markets Critical values E32 E52 Federal funds rate Finance Forecasts and trends G10 Linear models Market trend/market analysis Markov analysis Markov-switching Markovian processes Monetary policy Prices and rates Probability Securities markets Stock exchange Stock market Stock markets Stock prices Stock returns Stocks Studies Transition probabilities U.S.A Vector autoregression |
title | Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns? |
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