Conditional exceedance probabilities

Probabilistic forecasts of variables measured on a categorical or ordinal scale, such as precipitation occurrence or temperatures exceeding a threshold, are typically verified by comparing the relative frequency with which the target event occurs given different levels of forecast confidence. The de...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Monthly weather review 2007-02, Vol.135 (2), p.363-372
Hauptverfasser:	MASON, Simon J, GALPIN, Jacqueline S, GODDARD, Lisa, GRAHAM, Nicholas E, RAJARTNAM, Balakanapathy
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Binomial distribution Component reliability Conditional probability Confidence intervals Context Continuity (mathematics) Decomposition Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology Expected values External geophysics Frequencies General circulation models Generalized linear models Histograms Meteorology Precipitation Probability Probability theory Procedures Quantiles Reliability Simulation Statistical analysis Statistical tests Weather analysis and prediction Weather forecasting
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