Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlanti...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2009-03, Vol.48 (3), p.383-398 |
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| container_title | Natural hazards (Dordrecht) |
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| creator | Rumpf, Jonas Weindl, Helga Höppe, Peter Rauch, Ernst Schmidt, Volker |
| description | A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlantic basin. Subsequently, a large number of synthetic tracks is generated by means of an implementation of this model. This synthetic data is far more comprehensive than the available historical data, while exhibiting the same basic characteristics. It, thus, creates a more sound basis for assessing landfall probabilities than previously available, especially in areas with a low historical landfall frequency. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9 |
| format | Article |
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| subjects | Civil Engineering Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth, ocean, space Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics Environmental Management Exact sciences and technology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hurricanes Hydrogeology Meteorology Monte Carlo simulation Natural Hazards Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc Original Paper Probability Risk assessment Stochastic models Tropical cyclones Weather hazards |
| title | Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation |
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