Investigating nearshore spatial and temporal trends in nutrient concentrations along an urban northern shoreline, Lake Ontario

The nearshore zone of the Laurentian Great Lakes is of significant ecological importance, providing critical biogeochemical processes supporting spatially diverse habitats for a variety of species. Extreme plant and algal growth are common due to excessive anthropogenic eutrophication, with exacerbations from dreissenid establishment and lake mixing (e.g., coastal upwelling events and nearshore-offshore water exchanges), resulting in nuisance algal blooms across the nearshore area adjacent to Western Durham, Ontario, Canada. Thus, our main goal was to characterize the trends in essential nutrients (i.e., phosphorus and nitrogen) within the nearshore by applying general additive models on irregular time-series from 2011 to 2022 and to identify plausible contributing factors using exploratory principal component analysis. Increasing trends for total phosphorus were observed in surface (0.5 m below the surface) and benthic (0.5 m above the bottom) waters despite decreases in point source loading to the area. Most notably, the local water pollution control plant (WPCP) outfall did not seem to drive lake phosphorus concentrations across the study area, depicted by an orthogonal relationship within the principal component analysis. While the WPCP is a point source to the nearshore, it does not appear to be the primary driver of temporal lake phosphorus trends. Our results suggest that weather, inertial forcings and lake hydrodynamics in combination with traditional point-sources across Western Durham are contributing to the increasing total phosphorus trends observed as the peak period of wave spectra, wave height, alongshore wind speeds, watershed loadings, and total phosphorus concentrations within Lake Ontario were positively associated.