Study of biocapacity areas to reduce ecological footprint deficits: A case study of Turkey

Our world has had difficulty meeting humans' needs in recent years. To ensure that the world can sustain its inhabitability and self-sufficiency in terms of natural resources, it is required to make the total amount of biocapacity areas equal to or higher than the ecological footprint. An analytical study has been carried out to remedy the biocapacity deficit by utilizing this information for Turkey and then these areas are optimized with heuristic optimization techniques. As a result, Artificial Bee Colony provides better objective function results (fewer errors) compared to Particle Swarm Optimization and Global Optimization Method Based on Clustering and Parabolic Approximation in terms of minimum, maximum, average value, and standard deviation. The rates of change according to the current situation of the biocapacity areas in 2016 are 277.97 %, 30.28 %, −29.28 %, 14.97 %, and −44.85 % for cropland, grazing land, forestland, fishing grounds, and built-up land, respectively. Depending on the population growth, these rates should additionally change by 83.24 %, −0.69 %, 3.97 %, 6.22 %, and −14.24 % respectively in 2050. The developed model can be used in industry or within the frame of government development policy and thus the balance between ecological footprint and biocapacity can be kept under control. [Display omitted] •Analytical study conducted to remedy biocapacity deficit in Turkey•Heuristic optimization methods used to determine optimal deficit closure extent•Croplands, forestlands key areas needing increase in biocapacity•Rates of change in biocapacity areas from 2016 to 2050 analyzed