Ecological-economic coordination in the Yellow River basin: spatial and temporal evolution and driving mechanisms

In recent years, environmental damage caused by economic development has been increasing in China’s Yellow River basin (YRB), one of the country’s most important economic zones. Finding an appropriate governance model is a prerequisite to ensuring the coordinated development of the YRB. Traditional analysis focus on city or province level, which is less accurate and ignores the interaction between spaces. This paper explores the distribution, spatial relationships and influencing factors of the level of coordinated development at county level in the YRB and its impact on the study area’s environment. This investigation aims to provide scientific support for the region's governance. We used the equivalent value method, the entropy method, a coupling coordinating degree model and the double-fixed spatial Durbin model to quantify, spatialize and assess the relationship between the value of ecosystem services and economic development and to analyze the drivers of ecological changes and the spatial interaction effects in the YRB from 2010 to 2020. The results show that (1) The degree of ecological-economic coupling coordination in the YRB steadily increased over the study period and is high in eastern areas but low in the western area. The growth rate is fast in the east and slow in the west and the gap has gradually enlarged. (2) Adjusting the industrial ratios alone cannot improve the level of local coordinated development. The intensity of government public expenditure support can significantly affect the coordinated development level of local, and the intensity of the impact on the neighboring areas depends on the difficulty of intercommunication between areas. (3) Increasing rural disposable income in mountainous areas can effectively increase the level of local coupling coordination but can also lead to a decrease in coupling coordination in the surrounding areas. (4) The influence of the normalized difference vegetation index on coupling coordination depends on local land values.