Evaluation of the effect of scenarios in the 6th report of IPCC on the prediction groundwater level using the non-linear model of the input-output time series
Due to the increase in greenhouse gases, water and climate crises, increasing population, and decreasing water resources, accurately predicting the changes in the GWL is essential for the management of water resources. For this purpose, in this research, the MIROCES2L model was used to predict the c...
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| creator | Niroumand Fard, Fariba Khashei Siuki, Abbas Hashemi, Seyed Reza Ghorbani, Khalil |
| description | Due to the increase in greenhouse gases, water and climate crises, increasing population, and decreasing water resources, accurately predicting the changes in the GWL is essential for the management of water resources. For this purpose, in this research, the MIROCES2L model was used to predict the climatic parameters of Birjand Plain under three scenarios of the sixth climate change report: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation parameters from these three scenarios were measured using the CMhyd model. The results indicated that the minimum and maximum temperature would generally increase in the future under the influence of climate change, but precipitation has a sinusoidal behavior and has a decreasing trend in the summer and spring seasons and an increasing trend in the winter and autumn seasons. Then, three ANN, NIO, and MLR models were employed to simulate groundwater depletion. The results indicated that the evaluation of the performance criteria of the NIO model is superior to the other two models, and it was chosen as the model for predicting groundwater depletion in the future period under the influence of climate change based on all three mentioned scenarios. The final results of this research indicated that the GWL of Birjand Plain in the future period (2024–2041) under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios would respectively decrease to 5.58m, 5.13m, and 5.38. The results of this research indicate that the need for sustainable management to conserve groundwater resources is also very important in the study area.
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| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10661-023-11872-9 |
| format | Article |
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Graphical abstract</description><subject>Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution</subject><subject>autumn</subject><subject>climate</subject><subject>Climate and population</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate change influences</subject><subject>Depletion</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Ecology</subject><subject>Ecotoxicology</subject><subject>Environment</subject><subject>Environmental Management</subject><subject>Environmental monitoring</subject><subject>Gases</subject><subject>Greenhouse effect</subject><subject>Greenhouse gases</subject><subject>greenhouses</subject><subject>Groundwater</subject><subject>Groundwater depletion</subject><subject>Groundwater levels</subject><subject>Groundwater resources</subject><subject>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Maximum temperatures</subject><subject>Minimum 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of the effect of scenarios in the 6th report of IPCC on the prediction groundwater level using the non-linear model of the input-output time series</title><author>Niroumand Fard, Fariba ; Khashei Siuki, Abbas ; Hashemi, Seyed Reza ; Ghorbani, Khalil</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c336t-31a82c38633019a92f90d20e42b5369bd28aabd34c444b6e812d1b63653bbcd83</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2023</creationdate><topic>Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution</topic><topic>autumn</topic><topic>climate</topic><topic>Climate and population</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate change influences</topic><topic>Depletion</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Ecology</topic><topic>Ecotoxicology</topic><topic>Environment</topic><topic>Environmental Management</topic><topic>Environmental 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Assess</stitle><date>2023-11-01</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>195</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>1359</spage><epage>1359</epage><pages>1359-1359</pages><artnum>1359</artnum><issn>0167-6369</issn><eissn>1573-2959</eissn><abstract>Due to the increase in greenhouse gases, water and climate crises, increasing population, and decreasing water resources, accurately predicting the changes in the GWL is essential for the management of water resources. For this purpose, in this research, the MIROCES2L model was used to predict the climatic parameters of Birjand Plain under three scenarios of the sixth climate change report: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation parameters from these three scenarios were measured using the CMhyd model. The results indicated that the minimum and maximum temperature would generally increase in the future under the influence of climate change, but precipitation has a sinusoidal behavior and has a decreasing trend in the summer and spring seasons and an increasing trend in the winter and autumn seasons. Then, three ANN, NIO, and MLR models were employed to simulate groundwater depletion. The results indicated that the evaluation of the performance criteria of the NIO model is superior to the other two models, and it was chosen as the model for predicting groundwater depletion in the future period under the influence of climate change based on all three mentioned scenarios. The final results of this research indicated that the GWL of Birjand Plain in the future period (2024–2041) under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios would respectively decrease to 5.58m, 5.13m, and 5.38. The results of this research indicate that the need for sustainable management to conserve groundwater resources is also very important in the study area.
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| subjects | Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution autumn climate Climate and population Climate change Climate change influences Depletion Earth and Environmental Science Ecology Ecotoxicology Environment Environmental Management Environmental monitoring Gases Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases greenhouses Groundwater Groundwater depletion Groundwater levels Groundwater resources Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Mathematical models Maximum temperatures Minimum temperatures Modelling Monitoring/Environmental Analysis nonlinear models Parameters Performance evaluation Population growth Precipitation prediction spring summer Sustainability management temperature time series analysis Water management Water resources Water resources management water shortages water table winter |
| title | Evaluation of the effect of scenarios in the 6th report of IPCC on the prediction groundwater level using the non-linear model of the input-output time series |
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