Prediction of ctenophore Beroe ovata Bruguiere, 1789 habitat expansion and control of invading Mnemiopsis leidyi Agassiz, 1865 in the Ponto-Caspian basin associated with climate change

The seas of Ponto-Caspian basin (Black, Azov and Caspian) are exposed to species invasions, including harmful ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi A. Agassiz, 1865 and its predator Beroe ovata Bruguière, 1789. Current environmental conditions of invasive ctenophores M. leidyi and B. ovata occurrence, development and variability in the Ponto-Caspian basin have been compiled, based on own field observations and published data. Analysis of climatological data on basic environmental parameters (water temperature, salinity, chlorophyll concentration) and modeling approach were used to predict favourable for both ctenophores conditions, and changes of those conditions, associated with the climate variations. The role of B. ovata as a bio-controller of M. leidyi population has been assessed. Several climate change scenarios have been considered in this study i.e., uniform increase/decrease of SST throughout the year by 2 °C and only spring temperatures increase/decrease by 2 °C. The most sensitive to increase in SST in terms of M. leidyi reproduction duration are the western coast of the Black Sea and the Southern and Middle Caspian. On the other hand, B. ovata reproduction duration is expected to increase in several areas, including the northern coast of the Black Sea and the Southern and Middle Caspian. The coastal areas of the Black Sea and the transitional regions between the Southern and Middle Caspian are exposed to an earlier start of M. leidyi reproduction during warmer springs. Regarding B. ovata, the whole Black Sea is vulnerable to spring SST changes, but in the Caspian Sea B. ovata extends its reproduction duration only in the Middle Caspian during warmer springs. Since B. ovata consumes mostly M. leidyi, it is an important biocontrolling agent of M. leidyi, harmless for the ecosystem. •Invasive ctenophores M. leidyi and B. ovata existence conditions in the Ponto-Caspian basin compiled.•Analysis of climatological data and modeling approach were used to predict favourable conditions.•B. ovata is an important biocontrolling agent of M. leidyi, harmless for the ecosystem.