Nationwide prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes in Pakistan: A systematic review and meta-analysis

•Significant diabetes (10 %) and prediabetes (11 %) rates in Pakistan.•Rural diabetes rates surpassed urban post-2000, needing targeted interventions.•Highest diabetes prevalence in Punjab (16 %), lowest in KPK (11 %).•Slightly higher rate of diabetes in females; a higher rate of prediabetes in males.•Urgent need for targeted public health strategies and early interventions. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and pre-diabetes (pre-DM) are significant health concerns in Pakistan. This systematic review and meta-analysis estimate the prevalence of T2DM and pre-DM, assessing regional, gender, and urban–rural differences. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and PakMediNet databases, identifying 3478 articles. After screening, 17 studies from 1995 to 2018 were included. The pooled prevalence of T2DM and pre-DM in Pakistan was found to be 10.0 % and 11.0 %, respectively. This equates to approximately 24 million individuals with T2DM and 26 million with pre-DM, totaling 50 million affected. Rural areas showed higher T2DM prevalence post-2000, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.25 (95 % CI: 0.73 to 2.14). Gender analysis revealed a slightly higher, though statistically insignificant, prevalence of T2DM in females and a significantly higher prevalence of pre-DM in males (OR: 0.79, 95 % CI: 0.63 to 0.98). Regionally, Punjab had the highest T2DM prevalence (16 %), followed by Baluchistan (15 %), Sindh (14 %), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) (11 %). There is a substantial burden of T2DM and pre-DM in Pakistan, with significant regional and gender differences. Targeted interventions and resource allocation are needed to address the rising prevalence of diabetes, focusing on early detection and lifestyle modifications.