Unexpected response of terrestrial carbon sink to rural depopulation in China

China is experiencing large-scale rural–urban migration and rapid urbanization, which have had significant impact on terrestrial carbon sink. However, the impact of rural–urban migration and its accompanying urban expansion on the carbon sink is unclear. Based on multisource remote sensing product data for 2000–2020, the soil microbial respiration equation, relative contribution rate, and threshold analysis, we explored the impact of rural depopulation on the carbon sink and its threshold. The results revealed that the proportion of the rural population in China decreased from 63.91 % in 2000 to 36.11 % in 2020. Human pressure decreased by 1.82% in rural depopulation areas, which promoted vegetation restoration in rural areas (+8.45 %) and increased the carbon sink capacity. The net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of the vegetation in the rural areas increased at rates of 2.95 g C m−2 yr−1 and 2.44 g C m−2 yr−1. Strong rural depopulation enhanced the carbon sequestration potential, and the NEP was 1.5 times higher in areas with sharp rural depopulation than in areas with mild rural depopulation. In addition, the rural depopulation was accompanied by urban expansion, and there was a positive correlation between the comprehensive urbanization level (CUL) and NEP in 75.29 % of urban areas. In the urban areas, the vegetation index increased by 88.42 %, and the urban green space partially compensated for the loss of carbon sink caused by urban expansion, with a growth rate of 4.96 g C m−2 yr−1. Changes in rural population have a nonlinear impact on the NEP. When the rural population exceeds 545.686 people/km2, an increase in the rural population will have a positive impact on the NEP. Our research shows that rural depopulation offers a potential opportunity to restore natural ecosystems and thus increase the carbon sequestration capacity. [Display omitted] •Rural depopulation in China has significantly enhanced rural carbon sink.•The growth rates of NPP and NEP in rural areas were 2.95 g C m−2 yr−1 and 2.44 g C m−2 yr−1.•The comprehensive urbanization level was positively associated in 75.29 % of the regions with NEP.•There is a critical threshold for the influence of human drivers on NEP.•Rural depopulation offers potential opportunities for the restoration of natural ecosystems.