Evaluation of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction scales following pancreatoduodenectomies based on magnetic resonance imaging: A diagnostic test study

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is one of the most feared and common complications following pancreatoduodenectomies. This study aims to evaluate the performance of different scales in predicting POPF using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including estimation of the pancreatic duct diameter, pancreatic texture, main duct index, relation to the portal vein, and intra-abdominal fat thickness. A retrospective diagnostic test study was designed. Between January 2017 and December 2021, 133 pancreatoduodenectomies were performed at our institution. The performance for predicting overall POPF and clinically relevant POPF (CR-POPF) was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A total of 96 patients were included in the study, of whom 26 patients experienced overall POPF, and 8 patients had CR-POPF. When analyzing the predictive value of each of the different scores applied, the Birmingham score showed the highest performance for predicting overall POPF and CR-POPF with an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.815 (95 % CI 0.725–0.906) and 0.813 (0.679–0.947), respectively. The Birmingham scale demonstrated the highest predictive performance for POPF. It is a simple scale with only two variables that can be obtained preoperatively using MRI. Based on these results, we recommend its use in patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy.