Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030
Aim To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade. Methods Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Digestive diseases and sciences 2024-07, Vol.69 (7), p.2450-2461 |
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| creator | An, Haoyu Dai, Hanqian Liu, Xiaomeng |
| description | Aim
To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade.
Methods
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030.
Results
Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends.
Conclusions
The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10620-024-08465-y |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_3053978926</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>3082429388</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c326t-fc9cd1e4b2b57b08d77c3ac933c84dc40327a12e9d1df013bd9584881c409c153</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kMFOGzEQhq2qqITQF-CALPXSy8KMvbu2j20oUCkSSKRny2t7k0Ubb2rvHvL2GBJaqYeeZqT55p_RR8gFwhUCiOuEUDMogJUFyLKuiv0HMsNK8IJVtfxIZoB17hHrU3KW0jMAKIH1J3LKpWCsRJiRp8XGhHUX1nQVfXCJdoGOG0_v-qExPb3pkjfJ0-9TdD7QoaWPJtjozdhZusitj7SNw5aiUkDHgTLgcE5OWtMn__lY5-TX7Y_V4r5YPtz9XHxbFpazeixaq6xDXzasqUQD0glhubGKcytLZ0vgTBhkXjl0LSBvnKpkKSXmkbJY8Tn5esjdxeH35NOot12yvu9N8MOUNIeKKyEVqzP65R_0eZhiyN9lSrKSKS5lptiBsnFIKfpW72K3NXGvEfSrcn1QrrNy_aZc7_PS5TF6arbe_Vl5d5wBfgBSHoW1j39v_yf2BVmNiPA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>3082429388</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>Springer Nature - Complete Springer Journals</source><creator>An, Haoyu ; Dai, Hanqian ; Liu, Xiaomeng</creator><creatorcontrib>An, Haoyu ; Dai, Hanqian ; Liu, Xiaomeng</creatorcontrib><description>Aim
To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade.
Methods
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030.
Results
Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends.
Conclusions
The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0163-2116</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1573-2568</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-2568</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10620-024-08465-y</identifier><identifier>PMID: 38722410</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>New York: Springer US</publisher><subject>Adult ; Age ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Bayes Theorem ; Biochemistry ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years - trends ; Female ; Gastroenterology ; Global Burden of Disease - trends ; Global Health ; Hepatology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Medicine ; Medicine & Public Health ; Middle Aged ; Oncology ; Original Article ; Pancreatic cancer ; Pancreatic Neoplasms - epidemiology ; Pancreatic Neoplasms - mortality ; Prevalence ; Time Factors ; Transplant Surgery ; Trends</subject><ispartof>Digestive diseases and sciences, 2024-07, Vol.69 (7), p.2450-2461</ispartof><rights>The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2024. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.</rights><rights>2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c326t-fc9cd1e4b2b57b08d77c3ac933c84dc40327a12e9d1df013bd9584881c409c153</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10620-024-08465-y$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10620-024-08465-y$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38722410$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>An, Haoyu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dai, Hanqian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Xiaomeng</creatorcontrib><title>Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030</title><title>Digestive diseases and sciences</title><addtitle>Dig Dis Sci</addtitle><addtitle>Dig Dis Sci</addtitle><description>Aim
To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade.
Methods
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030.
Results
Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends.
Conclusions
The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.</description><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age Distribution</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Bayes Theorem</subject><subject>Biochemistry</subject><subject>Disability-Adjusted Life Years - trends</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Gastroenterology</subject><subject>Global Burden of Disease - trends</subject><subject>Global Health</subject><subject>Hepatology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Medicine & Public Health</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Oncology</subject><subject>Original Article</subject><subject>Pancreatic cancer</subject><subject>Pancreatic Neoplasms - epidemiology</subject><subject>Pancreatic Neoplasms - mortality</subject><subject>Prevalence</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Transplant Surgery</subject><subject>Trends</subject><issn>0163-2116</issn><issn>1573-2568</issn><issn>1573-2568</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kMFOGzEQhq2qqITQF-CALPXSy8KMvbu2j20oUCkSSKRny2t7k0Ubb2rvHvL2GBJaqYeeZqT55p_RR8gFwhUCiOuEUDMogJUFyLKuiv0HMsNK8IJVtfxIZoB17hHrU3KW0jMAKIH1J3LKpWCsRJiRp8XGhHUX1nQVfXCJdoGOG0_v-qExPb3pkjfJ0-9TdD7QoaWPJtjozdhZusitj7SNw5aiUkDHgTLgcE5OWtMn__lY5-TX7Y_V4r5YPtz9XHxbFpazeixaq6xDXzasqUQD0glhubGKcytLZ0vgTBhkXjl0LSBvnKpkKSXmkbJY8Tn5esjdxeH35NOot12yvu9N8MOUNIeKKyEVqzP65R_0eZhiyN9lSrKSKS5lptiBsnFIKfpW72K3NXGvEfSrcn1QrrNy_aZc7_PS5TF6arbe_Vl5d5wBfgBSHoW1j39v_yf2BVmNiPA</recordid><startdate>20240701</startdate><enddate>20240701</enddate><creator>An, Haoyu</creator><creator>Dai, Hanqian</creator><creator>Liu, Xiaomeng</creator><general>Springer US</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20240701</creationdate><title>Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030</title><author>An, Haoyu ; Dai, Hanqian ; Liu, Xiaomeng</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c326t-fc9cd1e4b2b57b08d77c3ac933c84dc40327a12e9d1df013bd9584881c409c153</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Age</topic><topic>Age Distribution</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Bayes Theorem</topic><topic>Biochemistry</topic><topic>Disability-Adjusted Life Years - trends</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Gastroenterology</topic><topic>Global Burden of Disease - trends</topic><topic>Global Health</topic><topic>Hepatology</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine & Public Health</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Oncology</topic><topic>Original Article</topic><topic>Pancreatic cancer</topic><topic>Pancreatic Neoplasms - epidemiology</topic><topic>Pancreatic Neoplasms - mortality</topic><topic>Prevalence</topic><topic>Time Factors</topic><topic>Transplant Surgery</topic><topic>Trends</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>An, Haoyu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dai, Hanqian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Xiaomeng</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Digestive diseases and sciences</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>An, Haoyu</au><au>Dai, Hanqian</au><au>Liu, Xiaomeng</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030</atitle><jtitle>Digestive diseases and sciences</jtitle><stitle>Dig Dis Sci</stitle><addtitle>Dig Dis Sci</addtitle><date>2024-07-01</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>69</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>2450</spage><epage>2461</epage><pages>2450-2461</pages><issn>0163-2116</issn><issn>1573-2568</issn><eissn>1573-2568</eissn><abstract>Aim
To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade.
Methods
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030.
Results
Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends.
Conclusions
The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Springer US</pub><pmid>38722410</pmid><doi>10.1007/s10620-024-08465-y</doi><tpages>12</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adult Age Age Distribution Aged Aged, 80 and over Bayes Theorem Biochemistry Disability-Adjusted Life Years - trends Female Gastroenterology Global Burden of Disease - trends Global Health Hepatology Humans Incidence Male Medicine Medicine & Public Health Middle Aged Oncology Original Article Pancreatic cancer Pancreatic Neoplasms - epidemiology Pancreatic Neoplasms - mortality Prevalence Time Factors Transplant Surgery Trends |
| title | Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030 |
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