Development of Company-Specific Emission Factors with Confidence Intervals for Natural Gas Customer Meters in Southern California

Methane is both a significant and short-lived greenhouse gas compared to CO2, and reducing methane emissions from natural gas distribution systems may offer cost-effective reduction opportunities. We report substantial new direct leak rate measurements from customer meter set assemblies (MSAs) in Southern California. In a novel way, emission factors are defined in terms of aboveground Hazardous and Nonhazardous leak categories, which take direct advantage of readily available industry leak data. We also studied leaks that were not detected as part of normal leak survey procedures. As a result, this yields company-specific emission factors that can be used to track progress in reducing methane emissions. This approach also has the advantage of explicitly accounting for the skewed or fat-tail distribution of leak rates by treating high flow rate MSA leaks separately from low flow rate MSA leaks. The Southern California Gas (SoCalGas) methane emission factors, based on 485 leak rate measurements by direct enclosure, were 4.55 (95% confidence interval: 2.32 to 7.14) kg/day for Hazardous leaks, 0.149 (0.119 to 0.183) kg/day for Nonhazardous leaks, and 0.0039 (0.0003 to 0.0198) kg/day for Non-Detected leaks. The percentage of surveyed meters with nondetected leaks was 29.1% (24.3 to 34.6%). Based on a robust Monte Carlo analysis, total leak emissions from MSAs for the SoCalGas system were reduced by 35% based on data from 2015 to 2022. These reductions were attributed to surveying a larger number of MSAs and accelerated leak repair rates. In traditional population-based emission inventories, an individual emission factor for a given asset category is multiplied by the total population of MSAs within the category. This approach simply cannot capture the reduction in leak numbers and methane emissions resulting from leak mitigation and prevention programs.