Is the 5-Minute Time-Trial Cycling Test a Valid Predictor of Maximal Oxygen Uptake? An External Cross-Validation Study

This study aimed to cross-validate a recently proposed equation for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake (V˙O2max) in cycling exercise by using the average power output normalized by the body mass from a 5-minute time trial (RPO5-min) as the independent variable. Further, the study aimed to update the predictive equation using Bayesian informative prior distributions and meta-analysis. On different days, 49 male cyclists performed an incremental graded exercise test until exhaustion and a 5-minute time trial on a stationary cycle ergometer. We compared the actual V˙O2max with the predicted value obtained from the RPO5-min, using a modified Bayesian Bland-Altman agreement analysis. In addition, this study updated the data on the linear regression between V˙O2max and RPO5-min, by incorporating information from a previous study as a Bayesian informative prior distribution or via meta-analysis. On average, the predicted V˙O2max using RPO5-min underestimated the actual V˙O2max by -6.6 mL·kg-1·min-1 (95% credible interval, -8.6 to -4.7 mL·kg-1·min-1). The lower and upper 95% limits of agreement were -17.2 (-22.7 to -12.3) and 3.8 (-1.0 to 9.5) mL·kg-1·min-1, respectively. When the current study's data were analyzed using the previously published data as a Bayesian informative prior distribution, the accuracy of predicting sample means was found to be better when compared with the data combined via meta-analyses. The proposed equation presented systematic bias in our sample, in which the prediction underestimated the actual V˙O2max. We provide an updated equation using the previous one as the prior distribution, which could be generalized to a greater audience of cyclists.