Modelling decision support and uncertainty for large transport infrastructure projects: The CLG-DSS model of the Øresund Fixed Link
This paper presents a decision support system, named the CLG-DSS model, which makes it possible for decision makers to assess various uncertainties in project appraisal in a systematic and explicit way. This model, a decision support system (DSS) developed within the Danish Centre for Logistics and...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Decision Support Systems 2007-08, Vol.43 (4), p.1539-1547 |
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| container_title | Decision Support Systems |
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| creator | Salling, Kim Bang Leleur, Steen Jensen, Anders Vestergaard |
| description | This paper presents a decision support system, named the CLG-DSS model, which makes it possible for decision makers to assess various uncertainties in project appraisal in a systematic and explicit way. This model, a decision support system (DSS) developed within the Danish Centre for Logistics and Freight Transport (CLG) is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) embedded in a wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) by the use of some principles for composite modelling assessment (COSIMA). The CLG-DSS model is set up to make use of scenario analysis (SA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A particular concern in the model is the handling of varying information across the assessment criteria and the application of SA to inform the MCS parameter setting. After the presentation of the modelling principles some ex-post case calculations for the Øresund Fixed Link are illuminating different aspects of appraisal uncertainty and thereby, at the same time, demonstrate the features of the CLG-DSS model as a useful decision support tool. It is finally concluded that appraisal of large infrastructure projects can be effectively supported by dealing with uncertainty issues in accordance with the principles described. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.dss.2006.06.009 |
| format | Article |
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It is finally concluded that appraisal of large infrastructure projects can be effectively supported by dealing with uncertainty issues in accordance with the principles described.</description><subject>Cost-Benefit Analysis</subject><subject>Decision making models</subject><subject>Decision Support System</subject><subject>Decision support systems</subject><subject>Monte Carlo Simulation</subject><subject>Multi-Criteria Analysis</subject><subject>Multiple criteria decision making</subject><subject>Risk Analysis</subject><subject>Scenario Analysis</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><issn>0167-9236</issn><issn>1873-5797</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2007</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kU2O1DAQhS0EEs3AAdhZLNil8U9iJ7BCDTMgNWIxw9py7Mrg0G03Lgcxew7BfbgYDs2KBVJJJVnfK1e9R8hTzraccfVi3nrErWBMbddiwz2y4b2WTacHfZ9sKqObQUj1kDxCnCsnda825MeH5OFwCPGWenABQ4oUl9Mp5UJt9HSJDnKxIZY7OqVMDzbfAi3ZRvzDhDhliyUvriwZ6CmnGVzBl_TmM9Dd_qp5c31Nj-sfNE201MdfPzPgUkdfhu_g6T7EL4_Jg8keEJ787Rfk0-Xbm927Zv_x6v3u9b5xsutK0zkNCsTUWiGkcD3v_Oht6waQ4-ikd-PU2dF5kK0CzXXnW2G1Gt3U6kFqIS_I8_PcuubXBbCYY0BXz7cR0oJGMtYrrvsKPvsHnNOSY93NCKYUE9XVCvEz5HJCzDCZUw5Hm-8MZ2YNxcymhmLWUMxabNW8OmugnvktQDboAlSPfcjVN-NT-I_6NytjmCQ</recordid><startdate>20070801</startdate><enddate>20070801</enddate><creator>Salling, Kim Bang</creator><creator>Leleur, Steen</creator><creator>Jensen, Anders Vestergaard</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier Sequoia S.A</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SC</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>JQ2</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>L~C</scope><scope>L~D</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20070801</creationdate><title>Modelling decision support and uncertainty for large transport infrastructure projects: The CLG-DSS model of the Øresund Fixed Link</title><author>Salling, Kim Bang ; Leleur, Steen ; Jensen, Anders Vestergaard</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c355t-5c7e6e2f4a2232c815dbda4c9e3bbc3dcbf5abcde346e7175d42a76bcf4793723</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2007</creationdate><topic>Cost-Benefit Analysis</topic><topic>Decision making models</topic><topic>Decision Support System</topic><topic>Decision support systems</topic><topic>Monte Carlo Simulation</topic><topic>Multi-Criteria Analysis</topic><topic>Multiple criteria decision making</topic><topic>Risk Analysis</topic><topic>Scenario Analysis</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Uncertainty</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Salling, Kim Bang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leleur, Steen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jensen, Anders Vestergaard</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Computer and Information Systems Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Computer Science Collection</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Computer and Information Systems Abstracts Academic</collection><collection>Computer and Information Systems Abstracts Professional</collection><jtitle>Decision Support Systems</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Salling, Kim Bang</au><au>Leleur, Steen</au><au>Jensen, Anders Vestergaard</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Modelling decision support and uncertainty for large transport infrastructure projects: The CLG-DSS model of the Øresund Fixed Link</atitle><jtitle>Decision Support Systems</jtitle><date>2007-08-01</date><risdate>2007</risdate><volume>43</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>1539</spage><epage>1547</epage><pages>1539-1547</pages><issn>0167-9236</issn><eissn>1873-5797</eissn><coden>DSSYDK</coden><abstract>This paper presents a decision support system, named the CLG-DSS model, which makes it possible for decision makers to assess various uncertainties in project appraisal in a systematic and explicit way. This model, a decision support system (DSS) developed within the Danish Centre for Logistics and Freight Transport (CLG) is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) embedded in a wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) by the use of some principles for composite modelling assessment (COSIMA). The CLG-DSS model is set up to make use of scenario analysis (SA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A particular concern in the model is the handling of varying information across the assessment criteria and the application of SA to inform the MCS parameter setting. After the presentation of the modelling principles some ex-post case calculations for the Øresund Fixed Link are illuminating different aspects of appraisal uncertainty and thereby, at the same time, demonstrate the features of the CLG-DSS model as a useful decision support tool. 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| identifier | ISSN: 0167-9236 |
| ispartof | Decision Support Systems, 2007-08, Vol.43 (4), p.1539-1547 |
| issn | 0167-9236 1873-5797 |
| language | eng |
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| source | Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals |
| subjects | Cost-Benefit Analysis Decision making models Decision Support System Decision support systems Monte Carlo Simulation Multi-Criteria Analysis Multiple criteria decision making Risk Analysis Scenario Analysis Studies Uncertainty |
| title | Modelling decision support and uncertainty for large transport infrastructure projects: The CLG-DSS model of the Øresund Fixed Link |
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