Spatial congruency or discrepancy? Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up expansion patterns and flood risk
Most coastal cities have been experiencing unprecedented urbanization-induced flood risk, climatic events, and haphazard anthropogenic activities, jeopardizing residents' lives and building environments. Despite mounting flood-related studies, analyzing the correlation between the spatiotempora...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The Science of the total environment 2024-03, Vol.915, p.170019-170019, Article 170019 |
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| creator | Mabrouk, Mahmoud Han, Haoying Abdrabo, Karim I. Mahran, Mahran Gamal N. AbouKorin, Salma Antar A. Nasrallah, Sarah Shen, Guoqiang Fan, Chao Yousry, Ahmed Hafez, Hisham M. |
| description | Most coastal cities have been experiencing unprecedented urbanization-induced flood risk, climatic events, and haphazard anthropogenic activities, jeopardizing residents' lives and building environments. Despite mounting flood-related studies, analyzing the correlation between the spatiotemporal dynamics of Built-up Expansion patterns (BE) and flood risk remains unknown and holds divergent perspectives. In this context, the coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt, characterized by multiple urban patterns and experiencing heavy rainfall annually, was selected as a testbed. Our method defined the spatiotemporal rates of BE from 1995 to 2023, quantified flood risk spatially, and finally investigated the correlation between BE and flood risk through spatial and statistical analysis. Our results show the built-up area occupied 30.32 % of the total city area till 2023, and the infilling pattern dominated the BE growth by 45.21 % of the total built-up area, followed by leapfrogging and edge expansion by 33.25 % and 21.55 %, respectively. The unplanned-infilling pattern is predominantly highly correlated with the flood-vulnerable peaks (correlation coefficient (rk) = 0.975, p-value |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170019 |
| format | Article |
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•Spatial congruency and discrepancy between the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up patterns and flood risk are revealed.•The built-up growth amount does not adequately reflect the peaks of flood risk, especially with climate change intensifying rainfall.•Porosity-based urban configuration and spatial distribution of built-up patches should be considered for fostering flood-resilient communities.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0048-9697</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1879-1026</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170019</identifier><identifier>PMID: 38224877</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Netherlands: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Alexandria ; Flood ; Spatial relationship ; Urban pattern ; Urbanization ; Vulnerability</subject><ispartof>The Science of the total environment, 2024-03, Vol.915, p.170019-170019, Article 170019</ispartof><rights>2024 Elsevier B.V.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c371t-b265e578c6473af18fb463086063b4734647c0a4920bbdc4455f9678a3ba006f3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c371t-b265e578c6473af18fb463086063b4734647c0a4920bbdc4455f9678a3ba006f3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170019$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,3550,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38224877$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Mabrouk, Mahmoud</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Han, Haoying</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abdrabo, Karim I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mahran, Mahran Gamal N.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>AbouKorin, Salma Antar A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nasrallah, Sarah</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shen, Guoqiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fan, Chao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yousry, Ahmed</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hafez, Hisham M.</creatorcontrib><title>Spatial congruency or discrepancy? Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up expansion patterns and flood risk</title><title>The Science of the total environment</title><addtitle>Sci Total Environ</addtitle><description>Most coastal cities have been experiencing unprecedented urbanization-induced flood risk, climatic events, and haphazard anthropogenic activities, jeopardizing residents' lives and building environments. Despite mounting flood-related studies, analyzing the correlation between the spatiotemporal dynamics of Built-up Expansion patterns (BE) and flood risk remains unknown and holds divergent perspectives. In this context, the coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt, characterized by multiple urban patterns and experiencing heavy rainfall annually, was selected as a testbed. Our method defined the spatiotemporal rates of BE from 1995 to 2023, quantified flood risk spatially, and finally investigated the correlation between BE and flood risk through spatial and statistical analysis. Our results show the built-up area occupied 30.32 % of the total city area till 2023, and the infilling pattern dominated the BE growth by 45.21 % of the total built-up area, followed by leapfrogging and edge expansion by 33.25 % and 21.55 %, respectively. The unplanned-infilling pattern is predominantly highly correlated with the flood-vulnerable peaks (correlation coefficient (rk) = 0.975, p-value < 0.05) and lowers dramatically towards planned-infilling regions with flood protections. Meanwhile, a spatial mismatch exists between high-risk peaks and leapfrogging and edge expansion (rk = 0.118 and 0.662, respectively, with a p-value < 0.01), indicating that controlling the built-up amount is inadequate for mitigating flood risk. Porosity-based urban configuration and spatial distribution of built-up patches in harmony with nature-based solutions are recommended for shaping flood-resilient and effective urban planning.
[Display omitted]
•Spatial congruency and discrepancy between the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up patterns and flood risk are revealed.•The built-up growth amount does not adequately reflect the peaks of flood risk, especially with climate change intensifying rainfall.•Porosity-based urban configuration and spatial distribution of built-up patches should be considered for fostering flood-resilient communities.</description><subject>Alexandria</subject><subject>Flood</subject><subject>Spatial relationship</subject><subject>Urban pattern</subject><subject>Urbanization</subject><subject>Vulnerability</subject><issn>0048-9697</issn><issn>1879-1026</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqFkEFv1DAQhS0EotuWvwA-cskyThzbOaGqKlCpUg-lZ8txJsVLYgfbWXX_PV5t6ZW5jGb03jzNR8gnBlsGTHzZbZN1OWT0-20NNd8yCcC6N2TDlOwqBrV4SzYAXFWd6OQZOU9pB6WkYu_JWaPqmispN2T_sJjszERt8E9xRW8PNEQ6uGQjLqaMX-nN8zKF6PwTzb-QpqOhJM9LiMU3HLyZnU00jLRf3ZSrdaH4XKzJBU-LOGP0iRo_0HEKYaDRpd-X5N1opoQfXvoFefx28_P6R3V3__32-uquso1kuepr0WIrlRVcNmZkauy5aEAJEE1fVrzsLRje1dD3g-W8bcdOSGWa3gCIsbkgn093lxj-rJiynstnOE3GY1iTrjvWthKajhepPEltDClFHPUS3WziQTPQR-h6p1-h6yN0fYJenB9fQtZ-xuHV949yEVydBFhe3TuMx0MFNQ4uos16CO6_IX8B_sOZfg</recordid><startdate>20240310</startdate><enddate>20240310</enddate><creator>Mabrouk, Mahmoud</creator><creator>Han, Haoying</creator><creator>Abdrabo, Karim I.</creator><creator>Mahran, Mahran Gamal N.</creator><creator>AbouKorin, Salma Antar A.</creator><creator>Nasrallah, Sarah</creator><creator>Shen, Guoqiang</creator><creator>Fan, Chao</creator><creator>Yousry, Ahmed</creator><creator>Hafez, Hisham M.</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20240310</creationdate><title>Spatial congruency or discrepancy? Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up expansion patterns and flood risk</title><author>Mabrouk, Mahmoud ; Han, Haoying ; Abdrabo, Karim I. ; Mahran, Mahran Gamal N. ; AbouKorin, Salma Antar A. ; Nasrallah, Sarah ; Shen, Guoqiang ; Fan, Chao ; Yousry, Ahmed ; Hafez, Hisham M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c371t-b265e578c6473af18fb463086063b4734647c0a4920bbdc4455f9678a3ba006f3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><topic>Alexandria</topic><topic>Flood</topic><topic>Spatial relationship</topic><topic>Urban pattern</topic><topic>Urbanization</topic><topic>Vulnerability</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Mabrouk, Mahmoud</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Han, Haoying</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Abdrabo, Karim I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mahran, Mahran Gamal N.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>AbouKorin, Salma Antar A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nasrallah, Sarah</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shen, Guoqiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fan, Chao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yousry, Ahmed</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hafez, Hisham M.</creatorcontrib><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>The Science of the total environment</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mabrouk, Mahmoud</au><au>Han, Haoying</au><au>Abdrabo, Karim I.</au><au>Mahran, Mahran Gamal N.</au><au>AbouKorin, Salma Antar A.</au><au>Nasrallah, Sarah</au><au>Shen, Guoqiang</au><au>Fan, Chao</au><au>Yousry, Ahmed</au><au>Hafez, Hisham M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Spatial congruency or discrepancy? Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up expansion patterns and flood risk</atitle><jtitle>The Science of the total environment</jtitle><addtitle>Sci Total Environ</addtitle><date>2024-03-10</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>915</volume><spage>170019</spage><epage>170019</epage><pages>170019-170019</pages><artnum>170019</artnum><issn>0048-9697</issn><eissn>1879-1026</eissn><abstract>Most coastal cities have been experiencing unprecedented urbanization-induced flood risk, climatic events, and haphazard anthropogenic activities, jeopardizing residents' lives and building environments. Despite mounting flood-related studies, analyzing the correlation between the spatiotemporal dynamics of Built-up Expansion patterns (BE) and flood risk remains unknown and holds divergent perspectives. In this context, the coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt, characterized by multiple urban patterns and experiencing heavy rainfall annually, was selected as a testbed. Our method defined the spatiotemporal rates of BE from 1995 to 2023, quantified flood risk spatially, and finally investigated the correlation between BE and flood risk through spatial and statistical analysis. Our results show the built-up area occupied 30.32 % of the total city area till 2023, and the infilling pattern dominated the BE growth by 45.21 % of the total built-up area, followed by leapfrogging and edge expansion by 33.25 % and 21.55 %, respectively. The unplanned-infilling pattern is predominantly highly correlated with the flood-vulnerable peaks (correlation coefficient (rk) = 0.975, p-value < 0.05) and lowers dramatically towards planned-infilling regions with flood protections. Meanwhile, a spatial mismatch exists between high-risk peaks and leapfrogging and edge expansion (rk = 0.118 and 0.662, respectively, with a p-value < 0.01), indicating that controlling the built-up amount is inadequate for mitigating flood risk. Porosity-based urban configuration and spatial distribution of built-up patches in harmony with nature-based solutions are recommended for shaping flood-resilient and effective urban planning.
[Display omitted]
•Spatial congruency and discrepancy between the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up patterns and flood risk are revealed.•The built-up growth amount does not adequately reflect the peaks of flood risk, especially with climate change intensifying rainfall.•Porosity-based urban configuration and spatial distribution of built-up patches should be considered for fostering flood-resilient communities.</abstract><cop>Netherlands</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><pmid>38224877</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170019</doi><tpages>1</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Alexandria Flood Spatial relationship Urban pattern Urbanization Vulnerability |
| title | Spatial congruency or discrepancy? Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up expansion patterns and flood risk |
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