A Prediction Model for the Efficacy of Transvaginal Repair in Patients With Cesarean Scar Defect: An Evidence-Based Proposal for Patient Selection

To establish a prediction model to help doctors determine which patients with cesarean scar defect are more suitable for transvaginal repair. Retrospective analysis. Xinhua Hospital and Shanghai First Maternity & Infant Hospital between June 2014 and May 2021. 1015 women who underwent transvaginal repair of cesarean scar defect (CSD). All enrolled patients underwent CSD repair performed by the same gynecologist and his team. And followed up a clinic visit at 6 months to record their menstruation and measure multiple parameters of the CSD by Magnetic Resonance Imaging. CSD patients are categorized as optimal healing group when the menstruation duration is no more than 7 days, meanwhile the thickness of residual myometrium is no less than 5.39 mm after vaginal repair. The final nomogram is constructed to predict surgical outcomes based on preoperative variables. The key factors that determine optimal healing are the timing of cesarean section (elective or emergency), menstrual cycle, CSD length, width, depth, and the thickness of the lower uterine segment. With the prediction model, scores are given to each parameter according to the statistics. Total scores range from 0 to 25 points, with a cutoff point of 16.5. When a score is greater than 16.5, the transvaginal repair can achieve optimal healing. Uterine position (anteflexion or retroflexion) and preoperative thickness of residual myometrium are the key factors affecting postoperative thickness of residual myometrium. The width of the CSD and the thickness of the lower uterine segment are the key factors affecting abnormal uterine bleeding symptoms (p < 0.01). For the first time, we established a prediction model system that may predict the repair effect of CSD and can potentially be useful in future clinical trials to determine which patients are more suitable for surgery or other treatment options.