Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity has been subjectively estimated to be likely to lie in the range of 1.5–4.5°C, and this uncertainty contributes a substantial part of the total uncertainty in climate change projections over the coming century. Objective observationally‐based estimates have so far failed to impro...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2006-03, Vol.33 (6), p.n/a |
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| creator | Annan, J. D. Hargreaves, J. C. |
| description | Climate sensitivity has been subjectively estimated to be likely to lie in the range of 1.5–4.5°C, and this uncertainty contributes a substantial part of the total uncertainty in climate change projections over the coming century. Objective observationally‐based estimates have so far failed to improve on this upper bound, with many estimates even suggesting a significant probability of climate sensitivity exceeding 6°C. In this paper, we show how it is possible to greatly reduce this uncertainty by using Bayes' Theorem to combine several independent lines of evidence. Based on some conservative assumptions regarding the value of independent estimates, we conclude that climate sensitivity is very unlikely ( |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2005GL025259 |
| format | Article |
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D. ; Hargreaves, J. C.</creator><creatorcontrib>Annan, J. D. ; Hargreaves, J. C.</creatorcontrib><description>Climate sensitivity has been subjectively estimated to be likely to lie in the range of 1.5–4.5°C, and this uncertainty contributes a substantial part of the total uncertainty in climate change projections over the coming century. Objective observationally‐based estimates have so far failed to improve on this upper bound, with many estimates even suggesting a significant probability of climate sensitivity exceeding 6°C. In this paper, we show how it is possible to greatly reduce this uncertainty by using Bayes' Theorem to combine several independent lines of evidence. Based on some conservative assumptions regarding the value of independent estimates, we conclude that climate sensitivity is very unlikely (<5% probability) to exceed 4.5°C. We cannot assign a significant probability to climate sensitivity exceeding 6°C without making what appear to be wholly unrealistic exaggerations about the uncertainties involved. 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Based on some conservative assumptions regarding the value of independent estimates, we conclude that climate sensitivity is very unlikely (<5% probability) to exceed 4.5°C. We cannot assign a significant probability to climate sensitivity exceeding 6°C without making what appear to be wholly unrealistic exaggerations about the uncertainties involved. 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| ispartof | Geophysical research letters, 2006-03, Vol.33 (6), p.n/a |
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| source | Wiley Online Library AGU Free Content; Access via Wiley Online Library; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; Wiley Online Library (Open Access Collection) |
| subjects | Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology |
| title | Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity |
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