Comparative deterministic and probabilistic approaches for assessing the aquatic ecological risk of pesticides in a mixed land use basin: A case study in Uruguay

Environmental concentrations of 25 pesticides in superficial water were employed to conduct an ecological risk assessment (ERA) in a mixed land-use basin utilized as a drinking water source. A deterministic risk assessment (RQ) was utilized to evaluate the chronic risk to aquatic biota, while a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach was applied to assess the acute and chronic risk in the most sensitive species and at the community level. A high risk was identified for insecticides (pyrethroids, organophosphates and organochlorines). RQs ranged from 4.0e-4 (2,4-D) to 105.3 (ethion) considering median concentrations and from 8.0e-4 (2,4-D) to 230 (p,p'-DDT) considering extreme concentrations. Temporal variation in ΣRQs showed the highest risk during spring and summer months, which is related to the crop calendar and land use in the Laguna del Cisne basin. For PRA, the probability of exceeding the hazardous concentration HC5 (5th percentile) was higher for the most sensitive species in chronic exposure, especially for cypermethrin (38.9 %), permethrin (25.6 %), and chlorpyrifos (16.6 %). In the case of acute exposures, the probability of surpassing HC5 was higher for the entire freshwater biota, with the highest values observed for bifenthrin (28.3 %), cypermethrin (25.5 %), permethrin (11.75 %), and ethion (11.1 %). The advantages and disadvantages of PRA for assessing pesticide ecological risk were compared with the conventional deterministic RQs approach, highlighting that PRA offers improvements over the deterministic risk assessment, especially for organophosphate pesticides. Additionally, PRA provides a more comprehensive evaluation of risk for both short and long-term exposure, has the potential to incorporate others available toxicity data (e.g., LD50, Daily Intake), and utilizes different hazardous concentrations, such as HC5, HC10, and HC50. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to establish a national regulatory framework to evaluate and mitigate pesticide risks in aquatic ecosystems, especially in drinking water source like Laguna del Cisne.