Future Range Dynamics Suggest Increasing Threats of Grey Squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) against Red Squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) in Europe: A Perspective on Climatic Suitability
Interactions between the introduced gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) and the native red squirrel (S. vulgaris) play an important role in the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems. However, the range dynamics of the grey squirrel and red squirrel under future climate change scenari...
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description | Interactions between the introduced gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) and the native red squirrel (S. vulgaris) play an important role in the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems. However, the range dynamics of the grey squirrel and red squirrel under future climate change scenarios remain unknown. The present study examined the range dynamics of grey squirrels and red squirrels in Europe and their range overlap now and in the future based on climate change. Under the most optimistic climate change scenario (SSP126), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was mainly predicted in Germany, France, Croatia, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Under the most pessimistic climate change scenario (SSP585), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was predicted in vast and scattered regions. Additionally, France, Italy, and Germany were overlapping ranges for the grey squirrel and red squirrel in the future under the SSP126 scenario but not under the current conditions, suggesting that there will be new regions where grey squirrels may threaten red squirrels in the future under SSP126. The range overlaps under the SSP585 scenario but not under the current conditions were vast and scattered, suggesting that there will be new regions in the future where grey squirrel may displace red squirrels under SSP585. Despite considerable variation, we detected expansions in the grey squirrel and red squirrel ranges and an increase in overlapping ranges between grey squirrels and red squirrels in the future. Therefore, our prediction suggests increasing threats of grey squirrels toward red squirrels in Europe in the future under climate change, which may impact the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems. |
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However, the range dynamics of the grey squirrel and red squirrel under future climate change scenarios remain unknown. The present study examined the range dynamics of grey squirrels and red squirrels in Europe and their range overlap now and in the future based on climate change. Under the most optimistic climate change scenario (SSP126), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was mainly predicted in Germany, France, Croatia, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Under the most pessimistic climate change scenario (SSP585), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was predicted in vast and scattered regions. Additionally, France, Italy, and Germany were overlapping ranges for the grey squirrel and red squirrel in the future under the SSP126 scenario but not under the current conditions, suggesting that there will be new regions where grey squirrels may threaten red squirrels in the future under SSP126. The range overlaps under the SSP585 scenario but not under the current conditions were vast and scattered, suggesting that there will be new regions in the future where grey squirrel may displace red squirrels under SSP585. Despite considerable variation, we detected expansions in the grey squirrel and red squirrel ranges and an increase in overlapping ranges between grey squirrels and red squirrels in the future. Therefore, our prediction suggests increasing threats of grey squirrels toward red squirrels in Europe in the future under climate change, which may impact the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1999-4907</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1999-4907</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.3390/f14061150</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Basel: MDPI AG</publisher><subject>Biodiversity ; Bulgaria ; Climate change ; Competition ; Croatia ; Discriminant analysis ; ecological balance ; Ecosystems ; Forest ecosystems ; forests ; France ; General circulation models ; Germany ; Hominids ; Italy ; Native species ; Nonnative species ; prediction ; Rodents ; Sciurus carolinensis ; Sciurus vulgaris ; Serbia ; Squirrels ; Terrestrial ecosystems</subject><ispartof>Forests, 2023-06, Vol.14 (6), p.1150</ispartof><rights>2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c285t-475c0ff0a62087332514abcd0d9de6c30e65a7e79597426d6f4ae9f352b7b76e3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27903,27904</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Nie, Peixiao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Rujing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Feng, Jianmeng</creatorcontrib><title>Future Range Dynamics Suggest Increasing Threats of Grey Squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) against Red Squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) in Europe: A Perspective on Climatic Suitability</title><title>Forests</title><description>Interactions between the introduced gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) and the native red squirrel (S. vulgaris) play an important role in the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems. 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Therefore, our prediction suggests increasing threats of grey squirrels toward red squirrels in Europe in the future under climate change, which may impact the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems.</description><subject>Biodiversity</subject><subject>Bulgaria</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Competition</subject><subject>Croatia</subject><subject>Discriminant analysis</subject><subject>ecological balance</subject><subject>Ecosystems</subject><subject>Forest ecosystems</subject><subject>forests</subject><subject>France</subject><subject>General circulation models</subject><subject>Germany</subject><subject>Hominids</subject><subject>Italy</subject><subject>Native species</subject><subject>Nonnative species</subject><subject>prediction</subject><subject>Rodents</subject><subject>Sciurus carolinensis</subject><subject>Sciurus vulgaris</subject><subject>Serbia</subject><subject>Squirrels</subject><subject>Terrestrial ecosystems</subject><issn>1999-4907</issn><issn>1999-4907</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNptkUFLAzEQhRdRsNQe_AcBL-2hmmw2m423UttaKChtPS9pdnZN2WbbZCP0d_kHTamIiHOZd_h4vJkXRbcE31Mq8ENJEpwSwvBF1CFCiGEiML_8pa-jnnNbHIbxTMRJJ_qc-tZbQEtpKkBPRyN3Wjm08lUFrkVzoyxIp02F1u9BtQ41JZpZOKLVwWtroXaov1LaW--QkraptQHjtBsgWUltgscSiv_gD19X0p5AbdDE22YPj2iEXsG6PahWfwBqDBrXeidbrUIi3cqNrnV7vImuSlk76H3vbvQ2nazHz8PFy2w-Hi2GKs5YO0w4U7gssUxjnHFKY0YSuVEFLkQBqaIYUiY5cMEET-K0SMtEgigpizd8w1Og3ah_9t3b5uDDO_KddgrqWhpovMvjLONC4IywgN79QbeNtyakC1QsMkIyygM1OFPKNs5ZKPO9DefZY05wfmow_2mQfgGrpo-n</recordid><startdate>20230602</startdate><enddate>20230602</enddate><creator>Nie, Peixiao</creator><creator>Yang, Rujing</creator><creator>Feng, Jianmeng</creator><general>MDPI AG</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>7S9</scope><scope>L.6</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20230602</creationdate><title>Future Range Dynamics Suggest Increasing Threats of Grey Squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) against Red Squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) in Europe: A Perspective on Climatic Suitability</title><author>Nie, Peixiao ; 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However, the range dynamics of the grey squirrel and red squirrel under future climate change scenarios remain unknown. The present study examined the range dynamics of grey squirrels and red squirrels in Europe and their range overlap now and in the future based on climate change. Under the most optimistic climate change scenario (SSP126), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was mainly predicted in Germany, France, Croatia, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Under the most pessimistic climate change scenario (SSP585), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was predicted in vast and scattered regions. Additionally, France, Italy, and Germany were overlapping ranges for the grey squirrel and red squirrel in the future under the SSP126 scenario but not under the current conditions, suggesting that there will be new regions where grey squirrels may threaten red squirrels in the future under SSP126. The range overlaps under the SSP585 scenario but not under the current conditions were vast and scattered, suggesting that there will be new regions in the future where grey squirrel may displace red squirrels under SSP585. Despite considerable variation, we detected expansions in the grey squirrel and red squirrel ranges and an increase in overlapping ranges between grey squirrels and red squirrels in the future. Therefore, our prediction suggests increasing threats of grey squirrels toward red squirrels in Europe in the future under climate change, which may impact the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems.</abstract><cop>Basel</cop><pub>MDPI AG</pub><doi>10.3390/f14061150</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Biodiversity Bulgaria Climate change Competition Croatia Discriminant analysis ecological balance Ecosystems Forest ecosystems forests France General circulation models Germany Hominids Italy Native species Nonnative species prediction Rodents Sciurus carolinensis Sciurus vulgaris Serbia Squirrels Terrestrial ecosystems |
title | Future Range Dynamics Suggest Increasing Threats of Grey Squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) against Red Squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) in Europe: A Perspective on Climatic Suitability |
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