Early response markers predict survival after etoposide-based therapy of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis

Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a life-threatening hyperinflammatory syndrome that is most commonly treated with etoposide and dexamethasone. This standard of care therapy has improved survival, but ∼15% of patients still die in the first months after diagnosis, and poor responses prompting salvage therapy are frequent. Thus, identifying patients at risk promptly is likely to improve outcomes. We conducted a multi-institutional, retrospective study of pediatric and young adults treated per HLH-94 or HLH-2004 from 2010 to 2019 to identify patients at risk for early mortality. Biweekly data during the first 100 days of treatment were analyzed using receiver operating curves to define optimal prognostic indicators and their thresholds. The primary end point was survival to bone marrow transplant (BMT) or ∼1 year if no BMT was pursued. Eighty-nine patients met the study inclusion criteria. Pre-BMT mortality was 13% (n = 12), and overall mortality was 27% (n = 24). Laboratory markers measured on day 7 of therapy more efficiently predicted outcomes than did either pretreatment or later assessments. The most potent day 7 unfavorable marker was improvement in soluble CD25 (sCD25) of less than 25% from pretherapy levels. Absolute sCD25 level, platelet count, absolute lymphocyte count, and blood urea nitrogen were also discriminatory markers (area under the curve ≥ 0.7). The presence of ≥3 of these unfavorable markers was strongly associated with pre-BMT mortality (accuracy, 0.93). Thus, serial monitoring of sCD25 and assessment of other early (day 7) response markers optimally predicts prognosis with etoposide-based therapy and may indicate the need for earlier use of alternative, response-adapted therapeutic strategies for HLH.