Habitat modification destabilizes spatial associations and persistence of Neotropical carnivores

Spatial relationships between sympatric species underpin biotic interactions, structure ecological communities, and maintain ecosystem health. However, the resilience of interspecific spatial associations to human habitat modification remains largely unknown, particularly in tropical regions where anthropogenic impacts are often greatest. We applied multi-state multi-species occurrence models to camera trap data across nine tropical landscapes in Colombia to understand how prominent threats to forest ecosystems influence Neotropical carnivore occurrence and interspecific spatial associations, with implications for biotic interactions. We show that carnivore occurrence represents a delicate balance between local environmental conditions and interspecific interactions that can be compromised in areas of extensive habitat modification. The stability of carnivore spatial associations depends on forest cover to mediate antagonistic encounters with apex predators and structurally intact forests to facilitate coexistence between competing mesocarnivores. Notably, we demonstrate that jaguars play an irreplaceable role in spatially structuring mesocarnivore communities, providing novel evidence on their role as keystone species. With increasing global change, conserving both the extent and quality of tropical forests is imperative to support carnivores and preserve the spatial associations that underpin ecosystem stability and resilience. •Interspecific spatial associations are a key determinant of carnivore occurrence•Forest loss and degradation erode the capacity for carnivores to coexist•Jaguars play an irreplaceable role in spatially structuring mesocarnivore populations•Carnivore conservation depends on maintaining both forest extent and quality Boron and Deere et al. analyze camera trap data from seven Neotropical carnivores across nine sites in Colombia to show that interspecific spatial associations are a key determinant of carnivore occurrence that can be destabilized by forest loss and degradation, with potentially cascading impacts on ecosystem stability and resilience.