Early postoperative risk stratification in patients with pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Early stratification of postoperative pancreatic fistula according to severity and/or need for invasive intervention may improve outcomes after pancreaticoduodenectomy. This study aimed to identify the early postoperative variables that may predict postoperative pancreatic fistula severity. All patients diagnosed with biochemical leak and clinically relevant-postoperative pancreatic fistula based on drain fluid amylase >300 U/L on the fifth postoperative day after pancreaticoduodenectomy were identified from a consecutive cohort from Birmingham, UK. Demographics, intraoperative parameters, and postoperative laboratory results on postoperative days 1 through 7 were retrospectively extracted. Independent predictors of clinically relevant-postoperative pancreatic fistula were identified using multivariable binary logistic regression and converted into a risk score, which was applied to an external cohort from Verona, Italy. The Birmingham cohort had 187 patients diagnosed with postoperative pancreatic fistula (biochemical leak: 99, clinically relevant: 88). In clinically relevant-postoperative pancreatic fistula patients, the leak became clinically relevant at a median of 9 days (interquartile range: 6–13) after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Male sex (P = .002), drain fluid amylase-postoperative day 3 (P < .001), c-reactive protein postoperative day 3 (P < .001), and albumin-postoperative day 3 (P = .028) were found to be significant predictors of clinically relevant-postoperative pancreatic fistula on multivariable analysis. The multivariable model was converted into a risk score with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 (standard error: 0.038). This score significantly predicted the need for invasive intervention (postoperative pancreatic fistula grades B3 and C) in the Verona cohort (n = 121; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.68; standard error = 0.06; P = .006) but did not predict clinically relevant-postoperative pancreatic fistula when grades B1 and B2 were included (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.52; standard error = 0.07; P = .802). We developed a novel risk score based on early postoperative laboratory values that can accurately predict higher grades of clinically relevant-postoperative pancreatic fistula requiring invasive intervention. Early identification of severe postoperative pancreatic fistula may allow earlier intervention.