Groundwater stress induced by shale resources development in the US: Evolution, response, and mitigation

[Display omitted] •Shale-induced groundwater stress evaluation model is proposed.•Shale-induced groundwater stress remains heavy and would keep growing.•Shale development could be more competitive than agricultural planting.•Joint policies would be effective for mitigating projected intensifying stress. Unconventional shale resources development consumes a huge amount of groundwater, yet it is short of systematic research on evolution, response, and mitigation of shale-induced groundwater stress (SGS). To fill this gap, we here propose a new SGS evaluation model based on an improved concept of groundwater footprint. We find that the SGS remains heavy within the shale regions of the US in 2017–2019. The projected SGS would keep growing in 2025–2050 within the regions except Permian, owing to comprehensive stochastic response to future intensified shale development and varied precipitation and temperature. Notwithstanding, comparison of the rate of risked returns indicates that shale development could be more economically and environmentally competitive than agricultural planting, demonstrating high suitability of shale development in part of regions such as Niobrara, Anadarko, Permian, and Eagle Ford. Joint policies regulating shale production, water intensity, and groundwater supply coefficient would be effective for mitigating future intensified SGS.