Validation of scores of PRO‐C3 to predict liver‐related events in alcohol‐related liver disease

Background and Aims Risk prediction in alcohol‐related liver disease (ArLD) is an unmet need. We aimed to assess PRO‐C3 models to predict liver‐related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. Methods A prospective co...

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Veröffentlicht in:Liver international 2023-07, Vol.43 (7), p.1486-1496
Hauptverfasser: Johansen, Stine, Israelsen, Mads, Villesen, Ida F., Torp, Nikolaj, Nielsen, Mette J., Kjærgaard, Maria, Lindvig, Katrine P., Hansen, Camilla D., Andersen, Peter, Rasmussen, Ditlev N., Detlefsen, Sönke, Leeming, Diana J., Thiele, Maja, Karsdal, Morten, Krag, Aleksander, Anastasiadou, Ema, Arumugam, Manimozhian, Bork, Peer, Hansen, Torben, Henrar, Roland, Israelsen, Hans, Legido‐Quigley, Cristina, Melberg, Hans Olav, Trebicka, Jonel, Mann, Mathias, Matthijnssens, Jelle
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container_end_page 1496
container_issue 7
container_start_page 1486
container_title Liver international
container_volume 43
creator Johansen, Stine
Israelsen, Mads
Villesen, Ida F.
Torp, Nikolaj
Nielsen, Mette J.
Kjærgaard, Maria
Lindvig, Katrine P.
Hansen, Camilla D.
Andersen, Peter
Rasmussen, Ditlev N.
Detlefsen, Sönke
Leeming, Diana J.
Thiele, Maja
Karsdal, Morten
Krag, Aleksander
Anastasiadou, Ema
Arumugam, Manimozhian
Bork, Peer
Hansen, Torben
Henrar, Roland
Israelsen, Hans
Karsdal, Morten
Legido‐Quigley, Cristina
Melberg, Hans Olav
Thiele, Maja
Trebicka, Jonel
Krag, Aleksander
Bork, Peer
Mann, Mathias
Matthijnssens, Jelle
Krag, Aleksander
Hansen, Torben
description Background and Aims Risk prediction in alcohol‐related liver disease (ArLD) is an unmet need. We aimed to assess PRO‐C3 models to predict liver‐related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. Methods A prospective cohort study of 462 patients with ArLD, split into a derivation cohort of 221 secondary care patients and a validation cohort of 241 primary care patients. Baseline variables, including fibrogenesis marker PRO‐C3, were used to develop a prediction model. Prognostic accuracy was compared to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF), fibrosis‐4‐index (FIB‐4), transient elastography (TE) and ADAPT. Results In the derivation and validation cohorts, 67 (30%) and 19 (8%) experienced an LRE during a median follow‐up of 5.2 years (IQR: 3.2‐6.8) and 4.0 years (IQR: 2.7‐5.6). On top of PRO‐C3 and ADAPT score, we generated a model (ALPACA) of independent predictors of LREs (PRO‐C3, AST/ALT, platelets). ALPACA had high prognostic accuracy with a C‐statistic of 0.85 in the derivation cohort, comparable to ELF (0.83) and TE (0.84) and significantly higher than FIB‐4 (0.78), PRO‐C3 (0.80) and ADAPT (0.81). In the validation cohort, all tests had comparable C‐statistics. Compared to low‐risk patients (ALPACA ≤11), high‐risk patients (>11) had a subhazard ratio for LREs of 12.6 (95% CI 5.9‐26.8, p 
doi_str_mv 10.1111/liv.15595
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We aimed to assess PRO‐C3 models to predict liver‐related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. Methods A prospective cohort study of 462 patients with ArLD, split into a derivation cohort of 221 secondary care patients and a validation cohort of 241 primary care patients. Baseline variables, including fibrogenesis marker PRO‐C3, were used to develop a prediction model. Prognostic accuracy was compared to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF), fibrosis‐4‐index (FIB‐4), transient elastography (TE) and ADAPT. Results In the derivation and validation cohorts, 67 (30%) and 19 (8%) experienced an LRE during a median follow‐up of 5.2 years (IQR: 3.2‐6.8) and 4.0 years (IQR: 2.7‐5.6). On top of PRO‐C3 and ADAPT score, we generated a model (ALPACA) of independent predictors of LREs (PRO‐C3, AST/ALT, platelets). ALPACA had high prognostic accuracy with a C‐statistic of 0.85 in the derivation cohort, comparable to ELF (0.83) and TE (0.84) and significantly higher than FIB‐4 (0.78), PRO‐C3 (0.80) and ADAPT (0.81). In the validation cohort, all tests had comparable C‐statistics. Compared to low‐risk patients (ALPACA ≤11), high‐risk patients (&gt;11) had a subhazard ratio for LREs of 12.6 (95% CI 5.9‐26.8, p &lt; .001) and higher cumulative incidence (57% vs. 7%, p &lt; .001; derivation cohort). We observed similar subhazard ratio in the validation cohort. Conclusions PRO‐C3‐based scores are reliable tools to predict LREs in ArLD patients and are suitable for risk stratification in primary and secondary care.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1478-3223</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1478-3231</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/liv.15595</identifier><identifier>PMID: 37183542</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</publisher><subject>Alcohol ; alcoholic liver disease ; Animals ; biomarkers ; Camelids, New World ; Complement C3 ; Derivation ; extracellular matrix ; Fibrosis ; Health care ; Health risks ; Humans ; Liver ; Liver - pathology ; Liver Cirrhosis - complications ; Liver diseases ; Model accuracy ; Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - complications ; Prediction models ; Primary care ; prognosis ; Prospective Studies ; Risk</subject><ispartof>Liver international, 2023-07, Vol.43 (7), p.1486-1496</ispartof><rights>2023 The Authors. published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>2023 The Authors. Liver International published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>2023. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (the “License”). 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We aimed to assess PRO‐C3 models to predict liver‐related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. Methods A prospective cohort study of 462 patients with ArLD, split into a derivation cohort of 221 secondary care patients and a validation cohort of 241 primary care patients. Baseline variables, including fibrogenesis marker PRO‐C3, were used to develop a prediction model. Prognostic accuracy was compared to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF), fibrosis‐4‐index (FIB‐4), transient elastography (TE) and ADAPT. Results In the derivation and validation cohorts, 67 (30%) and 19 (8%) experienced an LRE during a median follow‐up of 5.2 years (IQR: 3.2‐6.8) and 4.0 years (IQR: 2.7‐5.6). On top of PRO‐C3 and ADAPT score, we generated a model (ALPACA) of independent predictors of LREs (PRO‐C3, AST/ALT, platelets). ALPACA had high prognostic accuracy with a C‐statistic of 0.85 in the derivation cohort, comparable to ELF (0.83) and TE (0.84) and significantly higher than FIB‐4 (0.78), PRO‐C3 (0.80) and ADAPT (0.81). In the validation cohort, all tests had comparable C‐statistics. Compared to low‐risk patients (ALPACA ≤11), high‐risk patients (&gt;11) had a subhazard ratio for LREs of 12.6 (95% CI 5.9‐26.8, p &lt; .001) and higher cumulative incidence (57% vs. 7%, p &lt; .001; derivation cohort). We observed similar subhazard ratio in the validation cohort. Conclusions PRO‐C3‐based scores are reliable tools to predict LREs in ArLD patients and are suitable for risk stratification in primary and secondary care.</description><subject>Alcohol</subject><subject>alcoholic liver disease</subject><subject>Animals</subject><subject>biomarkers</subject><subject>Camelids, New World</subject><subject>Complement C3</subject><subject>Derivation</subject><subject>extracellular matrix</subject><subject>Fibrosis</subject><subject>Health care</subject><subject>Health risks</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Liver</subject><subject>Liver - pathology</subject><subject>Liver Cirrhosis - complications</subject><subject>Liver diseases</subject><subject>Model accuracy</subject><subject>Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - complications</subject><subject>Prediction models</subject><subject>Primary care</subject><subject>prognosis</subject><subject>Prospective 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of scores of PRO‐C3 to predict liver‐related events in alcohol‐related liver disease</title><author>Johansen, Stine ; Israelsen, Mads ; Villesen, Ida F. ; Torp, Nikolaj ; Nielsen, Mette J. ; Kjærgaard, Maria ; Lindvig, Katrine P. ; Hansen, Camilla D. ; Andersen, Peter ; Rasmussen, Ditlev N. ; Detlefsen, Sönke ; Leeming, Diana J. ; Thiele, Maja ; Karsdal, Morten ; Krag, Aleksander ; Anastasiadou, Ema ; Arumugam, Manimozhian ; Bork, Peer ; Hansen, Torben ; Henrar, Roland ; Israelsen, Hans ; Karsdal, Morten ; Legido‐Quigley, Cristina ; Melberg, Hans Olav ; Thiele, Maja ; Trebicka, Jonel ; Krag, Aleksander ; Bork, Peer ; Mann, Mathias ; Matthijnssens, Jelle ; Krag, Aleksander ; Hansen, 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Peter</au><au>Rasmussen, Ditlev N.</au><au>Detlefsen, Sönke</au><au>Leeming, Diana J.</au><au>Thiele, Maja</au><au>Karsdal, Morten</au><au>Krag, Aleksander</au><au>Anastasiadou, Ema</au><au>Arumugam, Manimozhian</au><au>Bork, Peer</au><au>Hansen, Torben</au><au>Henrar, Roland</au><au>Israelsen, Hans</au><au>Karsdal, Morten</au><au>Legido‐Quigley, Cristina</au><au>Melberg, Hans Olav</au><au>Thiele, Maja</au><au>Trebicka, Jonel</au><au>Krag, Aleksander</au><au>Bork, Peer</au><au>Mann, Mathias</au><au>Matthijnssens, Jelle</au><au>Krag, Aleksander</au><au>Hansen, Torben</au><aucorp>GALAXY and MicrobLiver consortia</aucorp><aucorp>the GALAXY and MicrobLiver consortia</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Validation of scores of PRO‐C3 to predict liver‐related events in alcohol‐related liver disease</atitle><jtitle>Liver international</jtitle><addtitle>Liver Int</addtitle><date>2023-07</date><risdate>2023</risdate><volume>43</volume><issue>7</issue><spage>1486</spage><epage>1496</epage><pages>1486-1496</pages><issn>1478-3223</issn><eissn>1478-3231</eissn><abstract>Background and Aims Risk prediction in alcohol‐related liver disease (ArLD) is an unmet need. We aimed to assess PRO‐C3 models to predict liver‐related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. Methods A prospective cohort study of 462 patients with ArLD, split into a derivation cohort of 221 secondary care patients and a validation cohort of 241 primary care patients. Baseline variables, including fibrogenesis marker PRO‐C3, were used to develop a prediction model. Prognostic accuracy was compared to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF), fibrosis‐4‐index (FIB‐4), transient elastography (TE) and ADAPT. Results In the derivation and validation cohorts, 67 (30%) and 19 (8%) experienced an LRE during a median follow‐up of 5.2 years (IQR: 3.2‐6.8) and 4.0 years (IQR: 2.7‐5.6). On top of PRO‐C3 and ADAPT score, we generated a model (ALPACA) of independent predictors of LREs (PRO‐C3, AST/ALT, platelets). ALPACA had high prognostic accuracy with a C‐statistic of 0.85 in the derivation cohort, comparable to ELF (0.83) and TE (0.84) and significantly higher than FIB‐4 (0.78), PRO‐C3 (0.80) and ADAPT (0.81). In the validation cohort, all tests had comparable C‐statistics. Compared to low‐risk patients (ALPACA ≤11), high‐risk patients (&gt;11) had a subhazard ratio for LREs of 12.6 (95% CI 5.9‐26.8, p &lt; .001) and higher cumulative incidence (57% vs. 7%, p &lt; .001; derivation cohort). We observed similar subhazard ratio in the validation cohort. Conclusions PRO‐C3‐based scores are reliable tools to predict LREs in ArLD patients and are suitable for risk stratification in primary and secondary care.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</pub><pmid>37183542</pmid><doi>10.1111/liv.15595</doi><tpages>11</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5031-2294</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5026-8740</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4256-140X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1854-1924</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7891-7706</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9443-5846</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4378-6256</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3414-5369</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9466-2333</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9598-4932</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7921-9707</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5704-2485</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4448-8955</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8452-1820</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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identifier ISSN: 1478-3223
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issn 1478-3223
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language eng
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source MEDLINE; Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete
subjects Alcohol
alcoholic liver disease
Animals
biomarkers
Camelids, New World
Complement C3
Derivation
extracellular matrix
Fibrosis
Health care
Health risks
Humans
Liver
Liver - pathology
Liver Cirrhosis - complications
Liver diseases
Model accuracy
Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - complications
Prediction models
Primary care
prognosis
Prospective Studies
Risk
title Validation of scores of PRO‐C3 to predict liver‐related events in alcohol‐related liver disease
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