Condition Evolution in Bridge Management Systems and Corrosion-Induced Deterioration

Condition assessment in the Swiss bridge management system (KUBA-MS) is performed on the element level. Five condition states are defined based on visual appearance. In order to forecast the condition states of any given element at any given time a relationship must be established between the element age and its condition state. This relationship, which describes the condition evolution, can be obtained empirically from statistical analysis of pairs of consecutive condition assessments (inspections). Markov chains are used in KUBA-MS to represent condition evolution and the transition probabilities are determined using regression analysis of pairs of inspections. Unfortunately there are almost no inspection data for the worst and second worst condition states. The forecasts made using Markov chains are therefore not always reliable. In this paper an alternative approach is suggested, which takes into consideration the physical phenomena underlying element deterioration. This alternative approach is applied to chloride-induced corrosion of steel reinforcement, by far the most common deterioration mechanism in Switzerland. The chloride-induced corrosion is modeled mathematically and numerical simulations of the condition evolution for different values of model parameters are performed. The simulation results have been mapped to condition states as defined in KUBA-MS and Markov transition matrices have been calibrated to fit simulation results.