Ice Age effects on genetic divergence of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in Panama: reconstructing limits of gene flow and environmental ranges: a reply to O'Dea et al

O'Dea et al. (2022) (Pleistocene sea level changes and crocodile population histories on the isthmus of panama: a comment on Avila-Cervantes et al. (2020). Evolution, 76(11), 2778-2783. https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.14610) question our hypothesis that sea-level changes during the past glaciation played a role in restricting gene flow between Pacific and Caribbean Crocodylus acutus in Panama. They argue that an error in sea-level high-stand reconstruction during the last interglacial period (118-130 ka) does not support our hypothesis. Although they are correct in our high-stand reconstruction error, overlooked the point in that we were presenting a model of restricted gene flow across the Panamanian Isthmus during low sea levels. We review the assumptions of gene demographic methods, emphasizing that we were focusing on times of genetic divergence. We expand here why gene flow between these coastal populations could have been restricted during the last glacial maximum (19-26.5 ka) and the 50,000 years preceding it when sea levels were lower than today. O'Dea et al. suggest local climates may have played larger roles than sea levels. We demonstrate that paleoclimate estimates for the past 3.3 Ma in Panama are within the bounds of extant C. acutus. The importance of Ice Age Sea-level dynamics on Neotropical species was likely profound and should be incorporated into evolutionary studies of these taxa.