Outcome of untreated low-level viremia versus antiviral therapy-induced or spontaneous undetectable HBV-DNA in compensated cirrhosis

Comparative outcomes of HBV-infected compensated cirrhosis with low-level viremia (LLV) versus maintained virological response (MVR) are unclear. We conducted a large, multiethnic, multicenter study to examine the natural history of LLV versus MVR in compensated cirrhosis. We enrolled patients with HBV-infected compensated cirrhosis (n=2316) from 19 hospitals in South Korea, Singapore, and Japan. We defined the LLV group as untreated patients with ≥1 detectable serum HBV-DNA (20-2000 IU/mL), Spontaneous-MVR group as untreated patients with spontaneously achieved MVR, and antiviral therapy (AVT)-MVR group as patients achieving AVT-induced MVR. Study end points were HCC or hepatic decompensation. The annual HCC incidence was 2.7/100 person-years (PYs), 2.6/100 PYs, and 3.3/100 PYs for LLV (n=742), Spontaneous-MVR (n=333), and AVT-MVR (n=1241) groups, respectively ( p = 0.81 between LLV vs. Spontaneous-MVR groups and p = 0.37 between LLV vs. AVT-MVR groups). Similarly, the annual decompensation incidence was 1.6/100 PYs, 1.9/100 PYs, and 1.6/100 PYs for LLV, Spontaneous-MVR, and AVT-MVR groups, respectively ( p = 0.40 between LLV vs. Spontaneous-MVR groups and p = 0.83 between LLV vs. AVT-MVR groups). Multivariable analyses determined that HCC and decompensation risks in the LLV group were comparable to those with Spontaneous-MVR and AVT-MVR groups (all p >0.05). Propensity score matching also reproduced similar results for HCC and decompensation risks (all p >0.05 between LLV vs. Spontaneous-MVR groups and between LLV vs. AVT-MVR groups). Untreated LLV in HBV-infected compensated cirrhosis is not associated with increased risk of disease progression compared with Spontaneous-MVR and AVT-MVR. These data have important implications for practice and further research.