Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation
A reformulation of the simple model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation introduced by Maas [Tellus 46A (1994) 671] is considered. Under a realistic range of forcing parameters, this model displays multiple attractors, corresponding to thermally direct and indirect circulations. The fi...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans 2002-10, Vol.35 (4), p.363-388 |
|---|---|
| 1. Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 388 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 4 |
| container_start_page | 363 |
| container_title | Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans |
| container_volume | 35 |
| creator | Monahan, Adam Hugh |
| description | A reformulation of the simple model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation introduced by Maas [Tellus 46A (1994) 671] is considered. Under a realistic range of forcing parameters, this model displays multiple attractors, corresponding to thermally direct and indirect circulations. The fixed point associated with the thermally direct circulation is unstable for a broad range of parameters, leading to limit cycles and chaotic behaviour. It is demonstrated that if weather variability is parameterised as stochastic perturbations to the mechanical and buoyancy fluxes, then the leading Lyapunov exponent of the circulation can become positive for sufficiently strong fluctuations in parameter ranges where it is deterministically zero. If the fluctuations are sufficiently small that the stochastic trajectories are not too far from the deterministic attractor, it is demonstrated that the sign of the leading Lyapunov exponent can have a substantial effect on the predictability of the system. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/S0377-0265(02)00049-0 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_27189067</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><els_id>S0377026502000490</els_id><sourcerecordid>27189067</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c399t-7fa804c476b6ac41f3fec6c4fadbbf9daa973c29e681c341bba98d6333ecdb643</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqFkE2P1DAMhiMEEsPCT0DKBQSHQtJ0kuaE0IovaSQOwDlyHVcblCYl6QzMv6fdWcFxD7YPfuxXehh7LsUbKaR--00oYxrR6v0r0b4WQnS2EQ_YTvambXRv7EO2-4c8Zk9q_blCct_bHRsOZ5iPKZ84_ZlzorRUnkcOvIZpjsTrkvEG6hKQT9lT3JbLDW1VJojxzCF5_jsk3_gSTpR4RoLEMRQ8RlhCTk_ZoxFipWd384r9-Pjh-_Xn5vD105fr94cGlbVLY0boRYed0YMG7OSoRkKN3Qh-GEbrAaxR2FrSvUTVyWEA23utlCL0g-7UFXt5-TuX_OtIdXFTqEgxQqJ8rK41srdCm3tB2fdKK7mB-wuIJddaaHRzCROUs5PCberdrXq3eV2bu1XvxHr34i4AKkIcCyQM9f9xt3Kt1iv37sLRquUUqLiKgRKSD4VwcT6He5L-AtKSmlA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>18836317</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation</title><source>Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals</source><creator>Monahan, Adam Hugh</creator><creatorcontrib>Monahan, Adam Hugh</creatorcontrib><description>A reformulation of the simple model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation introduced by Maas [Tellus 46A (1994) 671] is considered. Under a realistic range of forcing parameters, this model displays multiple attractors, corresponding to thermally direct and indirect circulations. The fixed point associated with the thermally direct circulation is unstable for a broad range of parameters, leading to limit cycles and chaotic behaviour. It is demonstrated that if weather variability is parameterised as stochastic perturbations to the mechanical and buoyancy fluxes, then the leading Lyapunov exponent of the circulation can become positive for sufficiently strong fluctuations in parameter ranges where it is deterministically zero. If the fluctuations are sufficiently small that the stochastic trajectories are not too far from the deterministic attractor, it is demonstrated that the sign of the leading Lyapunov exponent can have a substantial effect on the predictability of the system.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0377-0265</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1872-6879</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/S0377-0265(02)00049-0</identifier><identifier>CODEN: DAOCDC</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Earth, ocean, space ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; Lyapunov exponent ; Marine ; Ocean circulation ; Other topics ; Physics of the oceans ; Predictability ; Stochastic model</subject><ispartof>Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans, 2002-10, Vol.35 (4), p.363-388</ispartof><rights>2002 Elsevier Science B.V.</rights><rights>2002 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c399t-7fa804c476b6ac41f3fec6c4fadbbf9daa973c29e681c341bba98d6333ecdb643</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c399t-7fa804c476b6ac41f3fec6c4fadbbf9daa973c29e681c341bba98d6333ecdb643</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377026502000490$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,3537,27901,27902,65306</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=14004266$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Monahan, Adam Hugh</creatorcontrib><title>Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation</title><title>Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans</title><description>A reformulation of the simple model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation introduced by Maas [Tellus 46A (1994) 671] is considered. Under a realistic range of forcing parameters, this model displays multiple attractors, corresponding to thermally direct and indirect circulations. The fixed point associated with the thermally direct circulation is unstable for a broad range of parameters, leading to limit cycles and chaotic behaviour. It is demonstrated that if weather variability is parameterised as stochastic perturbations to the mechanical and buoyancy fluxes, then the leading Lyapunov exponent of the circulation can become positive for sufficiently strong fluctuations in parameter ranges where it is deterministically zero. If the fluctuations are sufficiently small that the stochastic trajectories are not too far from the deterministic attractor, it is demonstrated that the sign of the leading Lyapunov exponent can have a substantial effect on the predictability of the system.</description><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>External geophysics</subject><subject>Lyapunov exponent</subject><subject>Marine</subject><subject>Ocean circulation</subject><subject>Other topics</subject><subject>Physics of the oceans</subject><subject>Predictability</subject><subject>Stochastic model</subject><issn>0377-0265</issn><issn>1872-6879</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2002</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqFkE2P1DAMhiMEEsPCT0DKBQSHQtJ0kuaE0IovaSQOwDlyHVcblCYl6QzMv6fdWcFxD7YPfuxXehh7LsUbKaR--00oYxrR6v0r0b4WQnS2EQ_YTvambXRv7EO2-4c8Zk9q_blCct_bHRsOZ5iPKZ84_ZlzorRUnkcOvIZpjsTrkvEG6hKQT9lT3JbLDW1VJojxzCF5_jsk3_gSTpR4RoLEMRQ8RlhCTk_ZoxFipWd384r9-Pjh-_Xn5vD105fr94cGlbVLY0boRYed0YMG7OSoRkKN3Qh-GEbrAaxR2FrSvUTVyWEA23utlCL0g-7UFXt5-TuX_OtIdXFTqEgxQqJ8rK41srdCm3tB2fdKK7mB-wuIJddaaHRzCROUs5PCberdrXq3eV2bu1XvxHr34i4AKkIcCyQM9f9xt3Kt1iv37sLRquUUqLiKgRKSD4VwcT6He5L-AtKSmlA</recordid><startdate>20021031</startdate><enddate>20021031</enddate><creator>Monahan, Adam Hugh</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier Science</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>L7M</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20021031</creationdate><title>Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation</title><author>Monahan, Adam Hugh</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c399t-7fa804c476b6ac41f3fec6c4fadbbf9daa973c29e681c341bba98d6333ecdb643</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2002</creationdate><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>External geophysics</topic><topic>Lyapunov exponent</topic><topic>Marine</topic><topic>Ocean circulation</topic><topic>Other topics</topic><topic>Physics of the oceans</topic><topic>Predictability</topic><topic>Stochastic model</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Monahan, Adam Hugh</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><jtitle>Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Monahan, Adam Hugh</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation</atitle><jtitle>Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans</jtitle><date>2002-10-31</date><risdate>2002</risdate><volume>35</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>363</spage><epage>388</epage><pages>363-388</pages><issn>0377-0265</issn><eissn>1872-6879</eissn><coden>DAOCDC</coden><abstract>A reformulation of the simple model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation introduced by Maas [Tellus 46A (1994) 671] is considered. Under a realistic range of forcing parameters, this model displays multiple attractors, corresponding to thermally direct and indirect circulations. The fixed point associated with the thermally direct circulation is unstable for a broad range of parameters, leading to limit cycles and chaotic behaviour. It is demonstrated that if weather variability is parameterised as stochastic perturbations to the mechanical and buoyancy fluxes, then the leading Lyapunov exponent of the circulation can become positive for sufficiently strong fluctuations in parameter ranges where it is deterministically zero. If the fluctuations are sufficiently small that the stochastic trajectories are not too far from the deterministic attractor, it is demonstrated that the sign of the leading Lyapunov exponent can have a substantial effect on the predictability of the system.</abstract><cop>Amsterdam</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/S0377-0265(02)00049-0</doi><tpages>26</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0377-0265 |
| ispartof | Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans, 2002-10, Vol.35 (4), p.363-388 |
| issn | 0377-0265 1872-6879 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_27189067 |
| source | Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals |
| subjects | Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Lyapunov exponent Marine Ocean circulation Other topics Physics of the oceans Predictability Stochastic model |
| title | Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-02-02T07%3A25%3A15IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Lyapunov%20exponents%20of%20a%20simple%20stochastic%20model%20of%20the%20thermally%20and%20wind-driven%20ocean%20circulation&rft.jtitle=Dynamics%20of%20atmospheres%20and%20oceans&rft.au=Monahan,%20Adam%20Hugh&rft.date=2002-10-31&rft.volume=35&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=363&rft.epage=388&rft.pages=363-388&rft.issn=0377-0265&rft.eissn=1872-6879&rft.coden=DAOCDC&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016/S0377-0265(02)00049-0&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E27189067%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=18836317&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_els_id=S0377026502000490&rfr_iscdi=true |