College-for-some or college-for-all?: Inequality in the relationship between educational expectations and educational attainment across academic achievement

The predominant college-for-all ethos in the US education system proposes that all students should attend college regardless of academic achievement. An underlying assumption is that higher adolescent educational expectations will result in increased educational attainment, net of academic achievement. This study evaluates this assumption using data from the Education Longitudinal Study and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. Results from educational attainment models reveal interactions between expectations and achievement. Respondents with high levels of achievement have a stronger association between expectations and educational attainment than their peers with lower achievement levels. Thus, adolescents with lower achievement levels may receive fewer long-term benefits from ambitious college expectations than previously believed. Such findings suggest that interventions which jointly increase educational expectations and academic achievement may have the most positive impact on reducing education inequity.