The nine-year plan for transport: what next ?

Three problems are discussed which affect the interpretation and feasibility of the Government's transport plan for 2000–2010. First, it is argued that the cost of funds, and technical feasibility of scheduling an investment programme, causes serious difficulties for implementation of rail infrastructure improvements. A suggestion is made that Railtrack might be restructured with trust status, this being preferable to either the status quo or renationalisation. Secondly, some unresolved inconsistencies in the plan for reducing congestion are discussed, especially the forecasts that substantial reductions in congestion will be achieved at the same time as substantial increases in traffic volumes. It is suggested that the measure of congestion used exaggerates the extremely small expected changes in traffic speed. Thirdly, it is noted that the fuel price protests of 2000, and the traffic forecasts for 2010, are both marked by a possible underestimate of the sensitivity of fuel price as an influence on behaviour and on political attitudes. The paper expresses some concern about a possible loss in clarity and underlying consistency in the long term strategy for transport, reducing the consensus built up by previous Conservative and Labour administrations.