COVID-19 Vaccine Intention: Prospective and Concurrent Tests of a Disposition-Belief-Motivation Framework

Objective: The present study tested a novel integration of prospective and concurrent associations of demographic factors, traits, political orientation, coping strategies, infection and preventive beliefs, preventive behaviors, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms, exposure, and viral testing with COVID-19 vaccine intention. Method: The preregistered study used a stratified online U.S. sample (N = 500). Three assessments were aligned with (a) "15 days to slow the spread" in March 2020, (b) the first mortality surge in April/May 2020, and (c) the vaccine authorization and major case/mortality surge during December 2020 and January 2021. Results: Consistent with contemporaneous polling in December 2020, 66.4% of participants indicated they intended to receive an approved vaccine. Allowing for covarying interrelations, path modeling showed direct associations of greater education (β = .11, p < .01), the absence of child(ren) in the household (β = −.14, p < .001), more liberal political orientation (β = −.17, p < .001), stronger concurrent perceived norms for preventive behaviors (β = .23, p < .001), and more frequent concurrent mask wearing (β = .23, p < .001) with stronger vaccine intention. Prospective and concurrent trait, coping strategy, and sickness experience measures were not associated with intention. Conclusions: The close alignment of assessments with the public health timeline and the prospective and concurrent design provide needed clarity for the effects of stable demographic and dispositional factors (educational, parental, ideological) and more malleable preventive beliefs and behaviors, indicating potentially fruitful pathways to bolster novel vaccine intention.