A direct comparison of methods for assessing the threat from emerging infectious diseases in seasonally varying environments

•We compare two metrics for assessing seasonal infectious disease epidemic risks.•The Instantaneous Epidemic Risk depends only on conditions at the outbreak start.•The Case Epidemic Risk accounts for changes in transmission after the outbreak start.•The Instantaneous Epidemic Risk is only accurate w...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of theoretical biology 2022-09, Vol.548, p.111195-111195, Article 111195
Hauptverfasser:	Kaye, A.R., Hart, W.S., Bromiley, J., Iwami, S., Thompson, R.N.
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	host-vector model infectious disease epidemiology major epidemic mathematical modelling seasonal variability
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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