Accuracy of the Initial Rhythm to Predict a Short No-Flow Time in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

The no-flow time (NFT) can help establish prognosis in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. It is often used as a selection criterion for extracorporeal resuscitation. In patients with an unwitnessed OHCA for whom the NFT is unknown, the initial rhythm has been proposed to identify those more likely to have had a short NFT. Our objective was to determine the predictive accuracy of an initial shockable rhythm for an NFT of 5 minutes or less (NFT ≤ 5). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. Prehospital OHCA in eight U.S. and three Canadian sites. A total of 28,139 adult patients with a witnessed nontraumatic OHCA were included, of whom 11,228 (39.9%) experienced an emergency medical service-witnessed OHCA (NFT = 0), 695 (2.7%) had a bystander-witnessed OHCA, and an NFT less than or equal to 5, and 16,216 (57.6%) with a bystander-witnessed OHCA and an NFT greater than 5. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of an initial shockable rhythm to identify patients with an NFT less than or equal to 5 minutes. The sensitivity of an initial shockable rhythm to identify patients with an NFT less than or equal to 5 was poor (25% [95% CI, 25-26]), but specificity was moderate (70% [95% CI, 69-71]). The positive and likelihood ratios were inverted (negative accuracy) (positive likelihood ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.74-0.79]; negative likelihood ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.10-1.12]). Including only patients with a bystander-witnessed OHCA improved the sensitivity to 48% (95% CI, 45-52), the positive likelihood ratio to 1.45 (95% CI, 1.33-1.58), and the negative likelihood ratio to 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72-0.83), while slightly lowering the specificity to 67% (95% CI, 66-67). Our analysis demonstrated that the presence of a shockable rhythm at the time of initial assessment was poorly sensitive and only moderately specific for OHCA patients with a short NFT. The initial rhythm, therefore, should not be used as a surrogate for NFT in clinical decision-making.